A viral blog post from AI startup founder Matt Shumer is shaking people up — and we think you need to hear why.

Shumer compares where we are with AI right now to February 2020 — the "this seems overblown" phase right before the world changed. But he's not making predictions. He's describing what already happened to his job, and warning that everyone else is next.

In this episode, Michael and Frank break down the key claims: the Feb 5th model releases that changed everything, the METR data showing AI doubling its autonomous work capacity every few months, and the most unsettling part — AI is now helping build the next version of itself.

We cover:
• The COVID comparison — are we in the "this seems overblown" phase again?
• GPT-5.3 Codex and Opus 4.6 — the February 5th moment
• METR's data: AI autonomous task completion doubling every 4-7 months
• AI building AI — the self-improvement loop has started
• What "substantially smarter than almost all humans" means for 2026-2027

This is Part 1. Next episode we get into what you should actually do about it.

Read the article: shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening

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