75% of top-drafted pitchers never make it to the big leagues. If your son is a pitcher, this episode could change everything about how you approach his development. Subscribe for weekly baseball career insights.

Former first-round pick Justin Orenduff had the GM of the Dodgers watching him pitch in Double-A. Then his shoulder gave out. That injury sent him on a decade-long quest to understand why some pitchers stay healthy and others break down. His answer is backed by data from 1,100 drafted pitchers and published with Duke University.

✅ Why 75% of top-drafted pitchers never reach the big leagues — and only 2–3% become everyday starters

✅ How college innings count against a pitcher's professional career before it even starts

✅ What the DVS score is and how it quantifies injury risk on a 0–24 scale

✅ The free training tool every youth pitcher already has access to that nobody talks about

✅ Why velocity and longevity don't have to be mutually exclusive

Justin Orenduff was a first-round draft pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers who had his career derailed by a shoulder injury. After surgery, his surgeon told him something that changed his entire mindset: the way he threw the baseball caused the injury. That single phrase launched Justin into years of research, eventually partnering with Duke University to publish a formal study on pitching mechanics and injury risk.

His study tracked the top three pitchers drafted and signed by every MLB organization since 2013 — over 1,100 pitchers total. The findings were staggering: nearly half arrived in professional baseball already carrying arm injuries from their amateur careers. College pitchers who needed surgery had accumulated only around 320 total innings, and that number includes their college workload. The professional runway before a major injury was shockingly short.

From that research, Justin built DVS — the Delivery Value System — a biomechanics scoring model that rates a pitcher's delivery from 0 to 24 based on injury risk and mechanical efficiency. Pitchers like Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Mariano Rivera all scored above 16. Justin himself scored a 7 before his surgery and climbed to 17–20 after learning how to move differently — throwing harder at 35 years old than at any point in his professional career.

The conversation also dives into the USPBL, a four-team developmental league where Justin runs pitcher development. Unlike traditional independent baseball, the USPBL prioritizes skill development days, individualized plans, and a culture where committing to growth matters more than winning that night's game. So far, 52 players have signed with MLB organizations and 7 have reached the big leagues.

Matt and Justin also tackle the uncomfortable reality behind youth pitching culture: training programs that chase velocity to validate their own business models, not the pitcher's long-term career. And they explore a simple thought experiment that every baseball family should consider: if you had to choose between a coach who promises 100 mph and a coach who promises health, which would you pick? Scroll down to the timestamps to hear why that's the wrong question.

If this episode changed how you think about pitcher development, share it with a baseball family who needs to hear it.

RESOURCES

→ DVS Baseball: https://dvsbaseball.com

→ Justin on X/Twitter: @JustinOrenduff

Matt Hannaford is a Major League Baseball agent with 25+ years of experience advising families on baseball career decisions. Justin Orenduff is a former first-round MLB Draft pick, pitching biomechanics researcher, and head of pitcher development for the USPBL.