Recorded 30th January 2026. With AI, hyperscalers, and the broader ‘electrification of everything’ accelerating demand for clean, firm, and reliable power, capital markets are beginning to reopen to fund it. As speed-to-power becomes the decisive factor, strategy is moving upstream toward how electricity is secured, controlled, and delivered efficiently.

This shift shows up clearly in the week’s deal headlines - from owning and optimising dispatchable fleets, to upgrading brownfield assets, to tackling the bottlenecks that have historically constrained scale.

Together, the deals reveal a growing split in how ‘clean firm’ energy is being financed. Geothermal is being steadily de-risked across the value chain, with capital flowing into discovery, drilling, and operations. Fusion, meanwhile, is testing public markets as a frontier bet, shaped by vast capital requirements and long development timelines.

1. Constellation’s $16.4B equity acquisition of Calpine (≈$26.5B EV) signals incumbents securing near-term capacity by acquiring the ability to control dispatchable portfolios under reliability pressure. Calpine’s geothermal fleet includes ~200MW of underutilised turbine capacity. With existing permits, turbines, interconnection, and subsurface data in place, brownfield upgrades offer a compressed timeline to deliver additional clean firm MW and place a premium on assets that can be upgraded.
2. Zanskar’s $115M Series C highlights capital flowing upstream to address exploration uncertainty. By applying AI to subsurface mapping and geothermal discovery, the company aims to reduce the dry well problem that often halts projects before development. Lower exploration risk strengthens the project pipeline and geothermal’s evolution into a scalable infrastructure category.
3. Sage Geosystems’ $97M Series B co-led by Ormat, addresses operational credibility. Its geo-pressurised geothermal approach uses the subsurface as both a heat source and a compressed-rock energy storage medium, enabling load shifting and expanding the value stack toward firm power plus flexibility. Ormat’s participation signals confidence in operational discipline, uptime, and long-term asset performance.
4. Fervo’s IPO filing marks a category transition. After years of climate-tech investors pointing to a lack of exits, the filing signals that liquidity may be returning, with geothermal emerging as an early test case. Having raised more than $1B in private capital, Fervo’s move to the public markets will assess whether enhanced geothermal is valued alongside established infrastructure assets.
5. Fusion also moved toward public markets this week: General Fusion’s planned ~$1B SPAC transaction (≈$300M proceeds) and TAE’s proposed all-stock merger illustrate how long development horizons and large capital needs are pushing fusion developers toward broader funding pools. Public listing introduces access to capital alongside heightened scrutiny, volatility, and milestone pressure.

We close by bringing the discussion to the UK. The Warm Homes Plan reframes energy policy around affordability and resilience at the household level. Through insulation upgrades, heating support, and distributed energy technologies, the programme targets renters and lower-income households while incorporating tighter implementation standards to address past failures.

Across the episode, the pattern is clear: as electricity constraint intensifies, value accrues to those who can compress timelines, reduce risk, and deliver bankable capacity.