UFC Mexico Betting Preview: Moreno vs Kavanagh | Fighting With Numbers
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About this listen
The model stays hot after a 5–1 week, moving to 20–5 (80%) on the year, but UFC Mexico might be one of the lightest betting cards we’ve seen all season.
In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, we break down four key fights from UFC Mexico, headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh, and explain why discipline matters more than ever on thin-value cards.
We dive into:
- Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho (and why the data is distorted)
- Ailín Pérez vs Macy Chiasson (tight numbers, low confidence)
- Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green (a shocking spot?)
- Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh (main event caution flag)
This week’s theme: protect the bankroll, don’t force action, and let the edges come to you.
As always, the breakdowns are built around xR%, striking differentials, grappling control, and real matchup context — not hype.
Follow Rob on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full write-ups on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on the First Strike podcast from VSiN (Also available on Youtube).
Hot start or not — we bet smart, not loud.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Weekly Update
01:25 Preliminary Fights Analysis
09:23 Main Event Discussion and Predictions