Before the first missiles landed in Tehran, Rachel Reeves had been looking forward to today’s Spring ‘forecast’ statement, which was designed to be the lightest-touch intervention by a Chancellor since Philip Hammond in 2018: no OBR scoring of her fiscal rules, no tax announcements, no major policy changes and, crucially, no months of damaging speculation about black holes or gilt yields in Britain’s fragile economy. The strategy worked, with barely any chatter ahead of time and the only real question being how small her measures would be – until turmoil in the Middle East sent oil and gas prices surging, markets tumbling and bond yields climbing, threatening to render parts of her forecasts outdated. The detail, however, will matter: whether longer-term inflation expectations creep up again, whether unemployment – already above previous forecasts – rises further, and how credible her spending plans look in the eyes of the OBR. Whatever she reveals, we’ll bring you live reaction and analysis.

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