Recessions are not caused by booms. They are triggered by shocks. That is the conclusion Tyler Goodspeed reached after studying data across four centuries. Most of what we believe about economic downturns does not survive the evidence.

Tyler is Chief Economist at ExxonMobil, former acting Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and holds dual PhDs from Harvard and Cambridge. His new book, ‘Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It’, draws on figures stretching back to the 18th century. It upends everything we think we know about booms, busts, and what comes next.

This episode of Earn The Right Podcast is for investors, founders, and executives trying to read the economic moment.

Tyler joins Apoorv Agarwal to break down the causes of a recession, challenge the most widely held economic beliefs, and examine what historical technology cycles tell us about the AI investment wave. He also explains the plucking model and what it means for anyone trying to make smarter decisions about their money, their business, or their career during a downturn.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• Why the boom-and-bust story is more myth than reality, and what actually causes economies to contract
• What 18th-century Atlantic piracy reveals about modern supply chain shocks and the Strait of Hormuz
• What the bottlenecks in AI infrastructure mean for the pace of technological change

ABOUT TYLER

Tyler Goodspeed is Chief Economist of ExxonMobil. He previously served as acting Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where he also chaired the OECD’s Economic Policy Committee. He holds a PhD in history from Harvard and a PhD in economics from Cambridge, and taught at Oxford and King’s College London. He is also a Griffin Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. His latest book, ‘Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It’, is his first written for a general audience. It challenges conventional wisdom on recessions with data stretching back to the 1700s and practical lessons for investors, executives, and policymakers alike.

ABOUT EARN THE RIGHT PODCAST

How do the world's most impactful leaders think, decide and build? Through unfiltered conversations, Earn The Right Podcast takes listeners inside the rooms where the hardest choices are made: from building billion-dollar companies to navigating doubt, reinvention and change. The show is hosted by Apoorv Agarwal, an AI scientist, entrepreneur (Text IQ, acquired 2021) and Columbia PhD, who has advised Fortune 500 leaders. For founders and decision-makers developing the future, this is your front-row seat to how the best earn the right to lead.

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