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Fooled by Randomness

The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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Fooled by Randomness

Written by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Narrated by: Sean Pratt
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About this listen

This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill, the world of trading, this audiobook is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. In an entertaining narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. Taleb uses stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is.

The audiobook is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the ancient world's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

But the most recognizable character remains unnamed, the lucky fool in the right place at the right time - the embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit". Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance.

It may be impossible to guard against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

©2004 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (P)2008 Gildan Media Corp
Investing & Trading Personal Finance Philosophy

Critic Reviews

"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident....[ Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church." (Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker)
"An articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider." (Amazon.com)
All stars
Most relevant
I strongly disagree with a lot of the reviewers who call Taleb pompous/arrogant. On the contrary he is someone who knows and acknowledges his limitations. In fact his closing words in the book about how one should conduct themselves with dignity just shows how wise the man is. Also, he always backs his claims with compelling arguments. For e.g lot of people complained about his claim that many millionaires become so by pure luck. He even gives you a thought experiment to show why that is true.
Only thing you may have to get used to is his style of writing and Nassim clearly calls this out at the beginning. If you are looking for a flow you may be disappointed. Look at it as tidbits of information interspersed across the book. Once you get over that and if you read this with an open mind, there is a wealth of information you will find in this book. Without a doubt one of the better books I have read written by an extremely intelligent, intellectual and wise man. A must read!

Insightful

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Really enjoyed this book. a fun, smooth read.

The storytelling and narrative is great. The author gives a good outline of what is wrong with our decision making framework, hints at reasons behind the same, exemplifies it.

Although some techniques are mentioned on bypassing those impulses yet there is much to be desired in terms of depth. In the end I'm afraid this may end up being a book whose summary is much needed and remembered, but the details are forgotten like those self-help books that the author rightly derided.

But I did end up taking away many concepts and writers I'd like to read up on. Seneca the stoic, Mandelbrot's mathematics, Popper and the general idea of probability-vs-risk and how the former is a misfit in today's economic estimation.

Great storytelling, good outline,not as much depth

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The author is everywhere. Very difficult to understand what is the author trying to convey, because the message changes randomly as the book progresses.

Fooled by the reviews

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Liked the book - some concepts and points were really mind boggling, like luck vs skill over multiple years for a successful trader. But some elements were too negative hinging on the wait of an unprecedented Black swan event. But urges you, rightfully, to plan and be prepared for a rainy day. Worth a read. Audio book was probably not the right format for this data heavy book.

Thought provoking

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There is absolutely no doubt in craziness and the insights of the content of this book by Taleb. He explains how knowingly or unknowingly randomness play important role in our life.

Equally joyful is the way in which book is read. For rest, explore yourself.

Deterministically enjoyable

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