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In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times best seller, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008-9 financial crisis.
With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets - and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context.
In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity - and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to listen to this book.
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Still Relevant After 21 Years
I would rate this audiobook at 5 stars if they included a PDF of the charts and graphs. The visual information provided is a critical part of the story which becomes lost in the audio format. I resorted to buying the physical book and making my own PDF of the charts and graphs for reference. Really, it should not be that hard for the publisher to provide this.
The audiobook is a good way to access this material during commute time or other opportunities where listening is easier than reading. The concepts are as important to consider today as they were 20 years ago, especially with the advent of meme stocks and cryptocurrencies where "animal spirits" are far more influential than fundamental value. It is helpful to understand that these behaviors are not new, but have been around since the beginnings of investing.
Robert Shiller makes a good case that the Strong Form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis is misguided, and that even the Semi-strong and Weak forms have holes.
While it may be difficult to profit from the information, it is clear that markets have periods of excess optimism and excess pessimism that inflate or depress prices for extended periods. It almost seems that the periods of "rational" investing behavior are actually a transition state between periods of increasing optimism or pessimism.
Any serious investor should read this book.
3 people found this helpful
PDF not attached
PDF not attached so you can’t see the diagrams author refers to - a great shame.