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  • The Avoidable War

  • The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China
  • Written by: Kevin Rudd
  • Narrated by: Kevin Rudd, Rafe Beckley
  • Length: 16 hrs and 9 mins
  • 4.4 out of 5 stars (5 ratings)

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The Avoidable War

Written by: Kevin Rudd
Narrated by: Kevin Rudd, Rafe Beckley
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Publisher's Summary

A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable.

The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault - of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily.

Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.

©2022 Kevin Rudd (P)2022 PublicAffairs

Critic Reviews

“A lifelong student of China, Kevin Rudd has become one of today’s most thoughtful analysts of China’s development. The Avoidable War focuses on the signal challenge posed by China’s evolution to America and to world order. Can the US and China avoid sleepwalking into a conflict? Rudd offers constructive steps for the two powers to stabilize their relations.” (Henry A. Kissinger)

“Wise counsel from a seasoned statesman who recognizes the real risk of catastrophic war and illuminates a promising path the US and China could take to avoid it.” (Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, and author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?)

“An extraordinary tour de force that analyzes the most important geopolitical relationship of the 21st-century. Organized, like Dante’s Inferno, into concentric circles that describe in brilliant detail the challenges ahead and a timely prescription to avoid a catastrophe. Let us truly hope that we can indeed avoid a war that looms upon us like a dark tower, threatening all the progress we have made.” (Admiral James Stavridis, 16th supreme Allied commander of NATO, former dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University)

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Excellent Review of China. But, the US?

I like this book by Kevin Ruud very much. He mentioned towards the end that the audience is American - primarily. This is a shame because the world is interconnected and many people may want to understand the American perspective in some depth.

His analysis of China through the circles is perfect. This is an excellent way to understand how China is changing and how Xi Jinping is changing China. Kevin Ruud has explained some of the risks facing China and Xi Jinping.

His analysis of the USA is shallow and imperfect. While he claims to be impartial, I think he is partial to his adopted land. While he acknowledges Americas's strengths and weaknesses, the analysis is superficial. We do not understand America and what prompts the Americans to be so aggressive.

I think the concept of 'managed competition' is weak. Who will manage it? How? Who will judge when either side breaks the rules, and what influence will they have?

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