Always the uncool kids at the table, Ben and Vaden push back against the AGI hype domininating every second episode of every second podcast. We react to "We're not ready for superintelligence" by 80,000 Hours - a bleak portrayal of the pre and post AGI world. Can Ben keep Vaden's sass in check? Can the 80,000 hours team find enough cubes for AGI? Is Agent-5 listening to you RIGHT NOW?

We strongly recommend watching the video for this one, available both on youtube and spotify:
- https://www.youtube.com/@incrementspod
- https://open.spotify.com/show/1gKKSP5HKT4Nk3i0y4UseB

• The incentives of superforecasters
• Arguments by authority
• Whether superintelligence is right around the corner
• The difference between model size and data
• Are we running out of high quality data?
• Does training on synthetic data work?
• The assumptions behind the AGI claims
• The pitfalls of reasoning from trends

• Michael I Jordan
• Neil Lawrence
  
• [Important technical paper from Jordan pushing back on Doomerism](A Collectivist, Economic Perspective on AI)
• Jordan article talking about dangers of using AlphaFold data
• Nature paper showing you can't use synthetic data to train bigger models
• Paper estimating of when training data will run out (Coincidentally enough, sometime between 2027-2028)

• Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
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But how many cubes until we get to AGI though? Send a few of your cubes over to incrementspodcast@gmail.com

Episode header image from here.