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We break down why markets feel whippy right now, from wheat supply shocks and trade headlines to fertilizer costs that keep sneaking back into every margin conversation. We keep coming back to one driver we can’t ignore: rising interest rates and Treasury yields that set the tone for everything from hedging to farm finances.
• cotton, soybeans, corn, and wheat reacting to summit expectations and profit taking
• why markets can peak on bullish news and bottom on bearish news
• USDA NASS winter wheat estimates surprising the trade and tightening stocks
• North Dakota dust storm and wind damage risk for spring wheat and replant decisions
• Trump-China summit takeaways including tariff frameworks, shipping costs, and beef plant registrations
• year-round E15 clearing the House and the Senate path staying uncertain
• the RFS waiver fight and why assumptions matter for ethanol and biodiesel demand
• Mexico pork restrictions focused on specific products and what it means for packer margins
• USMEF export study showing how beef and pork exports add value to corn and soybeans
• fertilizer hearing highlights, domestic production timelines, and oil price pressure
• beef import tariff plan delayed after backlash
• Kevin Warsh taking the Fed as CPI, PPI, and Treasury yields push “higher for longer”
• Iran conflict risk feeding energy inflation and spilling into ag inputs
• Corteva outlook on gene editing and hybrid wheat as a real productivity lever
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Futures and options trading involve risk and are not suited for everyone.

We walk through the market and policy drivers that could swing agriculture next week, from USDA May data and the wheat tour to a Trump Xi summit that may reshape demand for key commodities. We also connect geopolitics, drought, energy, and Washington decisions to the real-world risk farmers and traders manage every day.
• cotton rally context and what could extend it
• grain pullback after a strong run and why crude oil matters
• cattle and feeder cattle trend amid drought and slow herd rebuilding
• soybean oil spread dynamics tied to renewable fuels policy and 45Z expectations
• winter wheat tour focus on HRW production and abandonment risk
• Iran ceasefire uncertainty and why geopolitics now drives market volatility
• drought map takeaways for planting progress and yield psychology
• year-round E15 prospects in Congress and the infrastructure lag
• Trump Xi summit deliverables and potential ag purchase commitments
• tariff court ruling, Section 301 path, and timing risks
• tariff refunds and liquidity implications for companies
• interest rates, sticky inflation, and debt pressure
• farm aid and ag disaster package timeline and legislative vehicle questions
• DOJ action on AgriStats and what it signals for the meat sector
• fertilizer price constraints now and possible long-term domestic supply strategy
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We get a ground-level read on Washington, DC as Jesse Allen returns from the NAFB Washington Watch fly-in after meeting with USDA leaders and a long list of senators and House ag lawmakers. We talk through the farm bill chaos, the fertilizer and diesel cost squeeze, and why farmers feel pressure from both policy delays and public backlash.
• what the NAFB Washington Watch fly-in looks like and why it matters
• who Jesse meets across USDA and Capitol Hill, including one-on-one conversations
• why the House farm bill vote turns chaotic around E15 and amendments
• talk of more farmer aid and the reality of high input costs
• consumers losing touch with food production and vilifying farmers
• diesel shock and war-driven supply chain strain hitting rural America
• long-term fertilizer production plans versus the short-term cash crunch
• the simple goal most farmers share, fair markets and stable livelihoods

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AgBull Audio and Video Links

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Futures and options trading involve risk and are not suited for everyone.

Support the show