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Episode Description: You bought a ski pass in January and never used it. You signed up for a meal kit service when you were very hungry. You took out a 30-year mortgage on a house you'd "definitely" live in forever. What's the common thread? Projection bias — the very human tendency to assume that whoever we are right now is basically who we'll always be. In this episode, we break down what projection bias actually is, why your brain is wired for it, and — most importantly — how to catch yourself doing it before it costs you money.

What You'll Learn:

• What projection bias is and why it's not just "bad planning"
• The three financial zones where it hits hardest: big purchases, savings, and lifestyle creep
• The "Future You Letter" technique and other practical hacks to outsmart your present-biased brain
• Why marketers love projection bias (and use it against you constantly)

Key Concepts Mentioned:

• Projection bias (Loewenstein, O'Donoghue & Rabin, 2003)
• Affective forecasting
• Hyperbolic discounting
• The "hot-cold empathy gap"
• Lifestyle creep / hedonic adaptation

Resources:

• Misbehaving by Richard Thaler
• Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert
• The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel
• Loewenstein, O'Donoghue & Rabin (2003), "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility" — Quarterly Journal of Economics

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