Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer break down the large-scale GSE MBS buying program announced last week and why a fast, visible policy fix may carry meaningful second-order consequences for market structure, supply, and long-term affordability. They highlight 2025’s historically low net MBS issuance and record-high CMO activity. The episode also tackles why banning institutional homebuyers is unlikely to fix affordability and what all of this means for positioning across coupons as 2026 unfolds.

In the first Convexity Pulse of 2026, Kirill Krylov kicks off the year assessing an MBS market that looks rich after a historically strong 2025. He walks through why spreads are tight across coupons and vintages, why inflows still matter more than valuations alone, and why investors will require deeper pool-level and out-of-index strategies in the year ahead. The episode also examines shifting housing policy priorities, the limits of rate relief, and why securitization rates may now pose more downside than upside risk for MBS supply.

In the final Convexity Pulse episode of 2025, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer explore three themes shaping the 2026 MBS outlook: the quiet return of GSE buying, the growing policy debate around whether Fannie and Freddie should support construction lending, and the steady role of money managers as the market’s center of gravity. They discuss how recent FHFA actions have reopened retained portfolio capacity, why AD&C lending remains controversial despite supply shortages, and how passive and active fund flows continue to anchor MBS demand. The episode closes with a forward-looking assessment of where spreads may settle as banks, GSEs, and money managers each play distinct roles in next year’s market.