In this final episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Hannah Wise sits down with Yves Bonzon, Group Chief Investment Officer at Julius Baer, to explore the secular outlook for the decade ahead. They discuss why interest rates have normalized at current levels, whether the AI investment cycle can avoid the fate of the dot-com bust, what China's balance sheet recession means for global investors, and the geopolitical risk that keeps Yves awake at night: waking up with stranded assets.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, but it also increased its forecast for 2026 GDP, from 1.9% to 2.1%, hardly a rate that would necessitate a long string of further cuts. Multiple forces are pulling the economy in different directions, so the 10-year treasury yield will likely continue to move in the same wide band it’s been in since 2023. Recent local elections have tilted strongly in favour of Democrats, and Trump’s approval ratings are low. It is possible next year’s mid-term elections go strongly in the Democrats’ favour, and the administration has less power than it does now. With economically-sensitive stock market indices like mid and small caps, the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 equal-weighted index all breaking to new highs, it’s difficult to be pessimistic.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

Chinese equities are entering 2026 on a strong footing, with policy tailwinds from the upcoming Five-Year Plan expected to sustain momentum despite recent consolidation. While tech-led rallies have dominated, attention is shifting toward domestic consumption as policymakers prioritise demand-side reforms—a potential turnaround for lagging consumer sectors if stimulus materialises.

Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over stretched valuations in US tech and AI names underscore the case for diversifying into non-US markets, such as China and Japan. Structural drivers, including a weaker U.S. dollar and gradual yuan appreciation, add to the appeal. On commodities, strong fundamentals and AI-driven demand for industrial metals signal further upside, building on this year’s broad-based rally in materials.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.