Melquizael Costa is climbing, and UFC Vegas 117 gives him the gatekeeper test that tells us if he is ready for the next tier at featherweight. Arnold Allen may not be a fresh name anymore, but he is still a dangerous veteran with the style and experience to check Costa’s rise. Costa is trying to force his way toward the title conversation, and Allen is trying to defend his rank.

Best bets, a sleeper fight you don’t want to miss, and full main card picks for: Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa, Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos, Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz, Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards, Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj plus the recap of UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC 328 Recap: 1:09

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 7:37

Stats You Need to Know: 9:26

Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj: 12:10

Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards: 18:36

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz: 23:12

Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos: 28:50

Arnold Allen vs Melky Costa: 34:18

Best Bets of the Week: 41:19

Prelim Pourover: 44:12

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Khamzat Chimaev switches from being the boogeyman of the middleweight division to carrying the pressure that comes with the crown. Former Middleweight champ Sean Strickland is trying to prove he can shut down the wrestling, win back the title, and show he never should have lost the belt in the first place. This middleweight main event brings pressure, chaos, and a real question for the division: do we finally get a long-term champion again, or does the title keep changing hands?


Best bets, a sleeper fight you don’t want to miss, and full main card picks for: Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland, Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van, Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Alexander Volkov, Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady, King Green vs Jeremy Stephens, plus the recap of UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs Prates.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Perth Recap: 1:20

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 9:23

Stats You Need to Know: 11:04

King Green vs Jeremy Stephens: 13:13

Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley: 18:35

Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta: 25:06

Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira: 30:48

Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland: 37:29

Best Bets of the Week: 47:20

Prelim Pourover: 50:13


Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Jack Della Maddalena gets the chance to remind everybody who he was before Islam Makhachev changed the conversation. One loss to a once-in-a-generation talent does not erase what JDM has built, but he still has to get past the surging southpaw striker Carlos Prates to hit the reset button. UFC Perth gives us a dangerous welterweight main event where somebody’s title case takes a real hit, while the other moves one step closer to a shot at gold.

Best bets, a sleeper fight you don’t want to miss, and full main card picks for: Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates, Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld, Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg, Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić, Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland, plus the recap of UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs Zalal.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00


UFC Vegas 116 Recap: 0:54


AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 9:29


Stats You Need to Know: 10:50

Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland: 13:15

Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić: 19:58

Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg: 25:38

Beneil Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld: 31:22

Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates: 38:14


Best Bets of the Week: 48:13


Prelim Pourover: 50:37


Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal is the main event for UFC Vegas 116 and the former champion Sterling is trying to build his case to lock in a title shot. Youssef Zalal is riding a 5 fight win streak looking to make the most of his second UFC run -- can the 29 year old “Moroccan Devil” turn the “Funk Master” into a certified gatekeeper at featherweight?

Best bets, a sleeper fighter you don’t want to miss, and full main card picks for: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal, Norma Dumont vs. Joselyn Edwards, Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez, Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti, Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos, Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann plus the recap of UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs. Malott.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Winnipeg Recap: 1:05

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 7:00

Stats You Need to Know: 8:58

Buchecha vs. Spann: 12:37

Jackson vs. Barcelos: 18:43

Grant vs. Martinetti: 25:05

Garcia vs. Hernandez: 30:27

Dumont vs. Edwards: 35:31

Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal: 41:09

Best Bets of the Week: 47:54

Prelim Pourover: 50:39

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott is the main event for UFC Winnipeg and the Canadian contender is trying to win his first UFC main event while Burns is trying to stay relevant in the division.

Full breakdown and picks for: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott, Phillips vs. Jourdain, Nallo vs. Herbert, Jasudavicius vs. Silva, Moisés vs. Young, Buzukja vs. Barbosa plus the recap of UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC 327 Recap: 1:40

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 10:25

Stats You Need to Know: 12:10

Buzukja vs. Barbosa: 15:15

Moisés vs. Young: 20:50

Jasudavicius vs. Silva: 26:14

Nallo vs. Herbert: 31:21

Phillips vs. Jourdain: 37:57

Burns vs. Malott (Main Event): 43:53

Best Bets of the Week: 50:55

Prelim Pourover: 53:54

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Jiří Procházka vs Carlos Ulberg is the main event for UFC 327 and the vacant Light Heavyweight title is up for grabs. In 2022, Procházka won the light heavyweight title, but never got the chance to defend it. A torn shoulder forced him out. He vacated. He didn't lose the belt in the Octagon. He came back with six straight finishes and a bonus in every single one of them. The vacant title is sitting right there, and Ulberg is the only thing standing between Jiri and finishing what he started. The problem is Ulberg is on a nine-fight win streak, trained by City Kickboxing, long and technical, and capable of ending the night early. One man is chasing something that was taken from him. The other is trying to lead a division he's never been on top of. That's the fight. Full breakdown and picks for: Jiří Procházka vs Carlos Ulberg, Murzakanov vs Costa, Blaydes vs Hokit, Reyes vs Walker, Swanson vs Landwehr plus the recap of UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs Duncan.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Vegas 115 Recap: 1:18

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 8:32

Stats You Need to Know: 10:00

Cub Swanson vs Nate Landwehr: 12:14

Dominick Reyes vs Johnny Walker: 18:31

Curtis Blaydes vs Josh Hokit: 24:05

Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa: 30:52

Jiří Procházka vs Carlos Ulberg (Main Event): 37:38


Best Bets of the Week: 45:22

Prelim Pourover: 47:24

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan is the main event for UFC Vegas 115 and the stakes are slightly different than your average UFC headliner. Moicano is playing gatekeeper against his own sparring partner. Duncan has the power to end the fight early and is looking to fast-track his way to the lightweight division’s top 10. The gym secrets make this line way too wide for a veteran facing a guy who knows his every move.

Full breakdown and picks for: Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan, Jandiroba vs Ricci, Yakhyaev vs Ribeiro, Ewing vs Estevam, McMillen vs Zecchini plus the recap of UFC Seattle.

Timestamps below:

Introduction: 0:00

UFC Seattle Recap: 1:42

AJ's Sleeper of the Week: 7:09

Stats You Need to Know: 9:13

McMillen vs Zecchini: 12:31

Ewing vs Estevam: 18:08

Yakhyaev vs Ribeiro: 24:55

Jandiroba vs Ricci: 28:19

Moicano vs Duncan (Main Event): 35:42

Best Bets of the Week: 43:34

Prelim Pourover: 53:12

Derick and AJ bring you MMA analysis, UFC picks, and fight betting breakdowns every week. Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.

Derick breaks down why UFC Vegas 115 is more interesting than it looks. How this card got rebuilt from the ground up after multiple fight cancellations, why two American Top Team teammates headlining creates a dynamic most main events don't have, what the betting market is saying about a top-ten lightweight coming in as a live underdog, why Virna Jandiroba versus Tabatha Ricci is a title eliminator hiding in a co-main slot, and the prelim fight you need to set an alarm for. Full picks and breakdown drop Thursday night on the Bloody Water Podcast, in association with Fight Muse Media.