In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, John Culver argues that two seemingly contradictory trends define China’s military this year: Xi Jinping’s sweeping purge of senior PLA leaders and the PLA’s rapid transformation into a far more lethal, joint-capable force. He notes unprecedented vacancies on the Central Military Commission and across theater commands—suggesting corruption is the excuse, not the cause—as Xi prioritizes loyalty and faster progress toward his ambitious reform goals. While 2027 isn’t an “invasion deadline,” Culver says the PLA is racing to meet its centennial benchmarks, with September’s parade showcasing a growing nuclear triad, serious investments in undersea warfare, and expanding unmanned aircraft. He cautions that any U.S.-created “hellscape” around Taiwan can be mirrored by China, which can produce equipment that is combat relevant in the Western Pacific at industrial scale. On gray-zone pressure, he casts China’s Coast Guard as a paramilitary tool and says its ability to run a sustained blockade would hinge on complex command-and-control that it hasn’t yet demonstrated in military exercises. Ultimately, Culver emphasizes that there is much about the PLA that remains unknown from the outside as Xi Jinping purposely keeps information opaque. This episode was recorded on October 15, 2025. John Culver is a nonresident senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings. Prior to retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2020, he served since 1985 as an analyst and manager on China, with a particular focus on the People’s Liberation Army. From 2015 to 2018, Culver served as national intelligence officer for East Asia (NIO-EA). He was a founding member of the CIA’s Senior Analytic Service, was in the Senior Intelligence Service, and was a recipient of the CIA’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal, and the William L. Langer Award for extraordinary achievement in the CIA’s analytic mission.
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36 mins