July 3: The Week the Retailer Told the Truth: Watches of Switzerland Rose by Admitting the Slowdown, While the Divergence Held
This week, the split we have tracked all quarter held wide open: the listed luxury names lagged even as the broad market climbed to new highs and the auction rooms set record after record. Kering, the group behind Gucci, had the worst of it, down about 7 percent. The one meaningful gainer was Watches of Switzerland, one of the world's largest sellers of Rolex, and the reason it rose is the story of the week.

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The Only Luxury Stock That Rose Did So by Admitting the Slowdown
- Watches of Switzerland climbed more than 6 percent on the week after abandoning its target to more than double sales by 2028, telling the market plainly that demand had cooled. The rest of the sector, still promising growth, kept falling.
- The lesson: this market is rewarding honesty about the slowdown over ambitious targets it no longer believes.
- The divergence held again: the equities lagged a rising market while the goods themselves set records. Thursday's one-day rally narrowed the gap, but only for a day.

The Tape (week over week, Friday July 3 close)
- Europe: Kering -6.96% (248.45 EUR, the laggard, still fighting to turn Gucci around); Swatch -2.76% (197.0 CHF); Burberry -2.62% (1,079.5p); Richemont -1.39% (184.2 CHF); LVMH -0.01% (495.7 EUR, flat); Hermès +0.92% (1,641.0 EUR); Watches of Switzerland +6.29% (752.0p, the week's leader).
- US (market closed Friday for Independence Day, so the week ran Mon-Thu): Movado -4.98%; Ralph Lauren -3.15%; Capri -2.17%; Tapestry -1.23%; Estée Lauder +3.94% (the lone gainer).
- Macro: Nasdaq +2.12% (25,833); S&P 500 +1.76% (7,483); gold +2.66% to a fresh record near 4,187 dollars an ounce; WTI oil -0.65%; the dollar index -0.50%. A soft Thursday jobs report kept rate cuts in view.

The Week in Demand (ALT/FNDATA data + the saleroom)
- Christie's Classic Week: the Old Masters sales set 7 world auction records in a single evening, led by a Titian at around 22 million dollars, the most ever paid for the artist.
- The most expensive tequila ever sold: a bottle of Clase Azul, first sold for 250 dollars, fetched 35,000 dollars at Sotheby's.
- Chanel bought Charvet, the 188-year-old Parisian shirtmaker, choosing to own irreplaceable craft rather than chase volume.

The Divergence
- The equity market spent the week treating luxury as a fading consumer story, and on the numbers it had a point, because the sector did lag. But the buyers of the actual goods spent the same week setting records, which is a strange way for demand to behave if it is truly collapsing. The test into next week: if Thursday's rally was the share prices starting to catch up to that demand, the records keep coming and the stocks follow; if it was a bounce, the gap reopens.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — Monday morning, your pre-market briefing on the luxury markets

July 2: Luxury Stocks Finally Rally With the Saleroom: LVMH, Hermès and Kering Jump 3%+, Chanel Buys Charvet, and a Record Tequila
For the first time in a while, both sides of the divergence moved the same way, and that way was up. The listed luxury names did not merely steady after Monday's stumble, they rallied hard, and they did it even as Wall Street was heavy. At the same time the industry itself signalled strength: Chanel paid to buy the 188-year-old Parisian shirtmaker Charvet, and the collectibles market set a record for the most expensive bottle of tequila ever sold at auction. All quarter the equity market has marked luxury down while the saleroom set records. Today the stocks narrowed that gap from the side that had been lagging.

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A Rare Day of Agreement (the divergence narrows from the stock side)
- European luxury rallied broadly: LVMH, Hermès and Kering each closed up more than 3 percent, and Watches of Switzerland jumped almost 4 percent as its bounce off Monday extended into a second day.
- It happened against a soft tape: the Nasdaq fell 0.8 percent and the S&P 500 finished flat, so luxury rallied on its own rather than on broad-market beta.
- The industry echoed it: Chanel bought Charvet to own a piece of irreplaceable craft, and a single bottle of Clase Azul (first sold for 250 dollars) fetched 35,000 dollars at Sotheby's, the most ever paid for a tequila at auction.

The Tape (Thursday close)
- Macro: Nasdaq 25,833 (-0.80%), S&P 500 7,483 (flat), gold 4,136 (+1.68%, another record), WTI oil 68.49 (-0.13%), US 10-year ~4.5% (+2.58%), dollar index 100.85 (-0.54%).
- European luxury (broadly higher): LVMH 497.95 EUR (+3.52%), Hermès 1,647.0 EUR (+3.26%), Kering 252.55 EUR (+2.77%), Watches of Switzerland 736.5p (+3.88%), Brunello Cucinelli 83.24 EUR (+0.77%), Burberry 1,070.0p (+0.75%), Richemont 182.80 CHF (+0.05%, flat), Swatch 195.20 CHF (-1.59%, lone decliner).
- US-listed (mixed): Capri 18.96 (+2.10%), Estée Lauder 83.71 (+1.50%), Ralph Lauren 398.22 (+0.05%, flat), Tapestry 144.21 (-1.48%), Movado 37.61 (-4.32%).

The Divergence
- The equity tape trades on macro and flows; the demand it represents shows up in the saleroom. All quarter those two diverged, with the stocks down and the auctions setting records. Today they converged, and it was the stocks that closed the gap. The test from here: if this is the share prices catching up to real demand, the records and the deal-making continue and the stocks keep following; if it is only a one-day bounce, the softness returns and the gap reopens.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — tomorrow

July 1: Same Split, New Quarter: the Luxury Equities Stay Soft, Watches of Switzerland Drops Its £3B Goal, and the Saleroom Keeps Setting Records
Today's signal: continuity. The second half opened where the first closed, the listed luxury names under pressure while the demand data pointed the other way. This week the divergence got a corporate stamp: Watches of Switzerland is abandoning its goal to more than double sales by 2028 because the market has deteriorated, even as Christie's set seven world records in London and doubled a jewelry estimate in Paris. The stores are trimming forecasts; the auction rooms are breaking records.

ALT/FNDATA
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A Corporate Stamp on the Divergence
- Watches of Switzerland, one of the world's biggest Rolex sellers, is stepping back from its 2028 target to more than double sales past 3 billion pounds, citing a deteriorated market. The listed side of luxury conceding the retail slowdown in its own words.
- Meanwhile the saleroom set records: Christie's Classic Week evening sales ~64 million dollars and 7 world auction records (a ~22 million dollar Titian, an artist record), after last week's Paris jewels doubled their estimate.
- The twist: WoS shares actually rose almost 4 percent on the reset, investors seemingly preferring an honest plan to an impossible one.

The Tape (Wednesday close)
- Macro (broad market gave back a little): Nasdaq 26,040 (-0.66%), S&P 500 7,483 (-0.22%), Dow 52,305 (flat), gold 4,045 (+0.57%), WTI oil 68.09 (-2.77%), US 10-year 4.48%, dollar index 101.4.
- European luxury (mixed to soft): Watches of Switzerland 729.5p (+3.77%), Brunello Cucinelli 83.36 EUR (+0.94%), Swatch 198.35 CHF (+0.38%), Hermès 1,595.0 EUR (-0.19%), Kering 245.75 EUR (-0.63%), LVMH 481.00 EUR (-0.64%), Richemont 182.70 CHF (-2.06%), Burberry 1,057.0p (-3.47%).
- US-listed: Birkenstock 44.03 (+1.43%), Canada Goose 9.55 (+1.06%), Tapestry 143.99 (-1.75%), Capri 18.54 (-2.42%), Movado 37.97 (-3.68%).

The Divergence
- The equity tape trades on macro and flows; the demand it represents shows up in the saleroom. The test: if auction prices hold, the beaten-down luxury stocks are simply too cheap and recover; if they fall, the stock weakness and WoS's climb-down were the early warning. Tonight, the auction rooms are still winning the argument.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — tomorrow

June 30: As H1 Ends, the Two Luxury Markets Finish in Opposite Places; Kering Slides While Christie's Paris Jewels Double Their Estimate
Tonight, the first half of the year closes with the two markets we track in opposite places. The listed luxury names limped to the line, with another soft session led by Kering, while the saleroom ended the half at its highs, Christie's Paris jewels doubling their estimate today after London's biggest auction haul in a decade last week.

ALT/FNDATA
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- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260630-p

A Half That Ends in Two Places
- Listed luxury closed the first half deep in the red. On a day the broad market rose (Nasdaq +1.5%, S&P +0.8%), the European luxury complex sold off hard, led by Kering down almost 7 percent, with LVMH, Richemont, Swatch, Burberry and Hermès all lower.
- The saleroom closed the half at records: Christie's Paris jewelry sale totaled 10.5 million euros, double its estimate, after London delivered its biggest summer haul in a decade last week.

A Notable Quarter-End
- Oil headed for a quarterly drop of around 20 percent, the yen touched a 40-year low against the dollar, and Iran stirred fresh tension with talk of controlling the Strait of Hormuz, even as the broad market took it in stride.

The Divergence
- The listed luxury market and the real one ended the half apart. The equity tape trades on macro and flows; the demand it represents shows up in the saleroom, and the saleroom is at its highs.
- The test into H2: if auction prices stay at these highs, the beaten-down luxury stocks are simply too cheap and recover; if auction prices fall, the stock selloff was the early warning of weaker demand. Tonight, with the saleroom at its highs, the demand side is winning.

The Board (Tuesday close)
- European luxury: Brunello Cucinelli 82.60 EUR (+0.83%), Watches of Switzerland 709.0p (+0.21%), Hermès 1,598.0 EUR (-1.08%), LVMH 484.10 EUR (-1.67%), Richemont 186.55 CHF (-1.76%), Swatch 197.60 CHF (-2.18%), Burberry 1,062.0p (-4.19%), Kering 247.30 EUR (-6.91%).
- US-listed: Tapestry 146.38 (+0.26%), Movado 39.31 (-0.68%), Canada Goose 9.51 (-1.65%), Birkenstock 43.03 (-3.13%), Capri 18.57 (-4.18%).
- Macro (today's move vs yesterday's close): Nasdaq 26,214 (+1.5%), S&P 500 7,499 (+0.8%), Dow 52,319 (+0.3%), gold 4,022 (-0.2%), WTI oil 70.03 (-0.6%), US 10-year 4.42%, dollar index 101.2 (flat).

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — tomorrow

June 29: On a Risk-On Day, LVMH, Hermès and Kering Slipped While the Nasdaq Jumped; the Demand Signal Is in the Resale Saleroom with New Highs
The two forces that drove last week's luxury selloff both eased, the US and Iran stepped back and the AI trade roared back, and the broad market rallied nearly 2 percent. Yet the luxury mega-caps slipped. Luxury was never an AI trade, so neither last week's tech-led selloff nor today's tech-led bounce measured luxury demand. The one thing that did, the saleroom, set fresh records today.

ALT/FNDATA
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Luxury Sat Out the Rally
- The macro turned risk-on: the Nasdaq closed up 1.8 percent on the AI and chip rebound, gold fell, oil firmed, the dollar slipped, with US-Iran tension easing.
- But the luxury giants lagged. LVMH closed down 0.7 percent, Hermès down two-thirds of a percent, Kering down half a percent, even as the broad market surged. Richemont (+1.7%), Brunello and Burberry were the exceptions.

The Demand Floor Made New Records
- While the equity tape chased the AI rebound, the saleroom printed records. London's summer auctions delivered the city's biggest haul in a decade, led by a 63.9 million dollar Modigliani; Christie's set a world record for an online handbag sale in Paris.
- Real luxury demand shows up at auction, and it made new highs on the very day the listed names slipped.

The Divergence
- Today was not the equities converging up toward demand. The broad market rallied on tech, the luxury mega-caps lagged, and the resale market made records. The equity tape trades on macro and sector flows; the demand it represents shows up in the saleroom.
- The test is unchanged: watch the resale series. If it holds at these highs, last week's selloff was macro and the mega-caps catch up. If it rolls over, that is the warning.

The Board (Monday close)
- European luxury: Richemont 189.90 CHF (+1.66%), Brunello Cucinelli 82.58 EUR (+1.77%), Burberry 1,095.0p (+1.11%), Swatch 202.0 CHF (-0.30%), Kering 265.65 EUR (-0.52%), Hermès 1,615.5 EUR (-0.65%), LVMH 492.30 EUR (-0.70%), Watches of Switzerland 703.0p (-0.71%).
- US-listed: Movado 39.42 (+3.49%), Canada Goose 9.45 (+1.83%), Capri 19.00 (+0.74%), Tapestry 146.56 (+0.38%), Birkenstock 43.41 (-2.49%).
- Macro: Nasdaq 25,820 (+1.82%), S&P 500 7,440 (+1.13%), Dow 52,183 (+0.50%), gold 4,032 (-1.56%), WTI oil 70.48 (+1.81%), US 10-year 4.37%, dollar index 101.1 (-0.26%).

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET
- Art Market — tomorrow (Tuesday), the week in the art world

June 26: Five Days, One Lesson: the Selloff Was Macro, Not Demand; the Watch Retailers Turn; Pandora's Standout Run; the AI Rout May Be Ending
This was the week our central thesis got stress-tested, and it held: the luxury equities went on a violent round trip, sold off hard then clawed most of it back, while the resale market that actually measures demand never moved from its highs.

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The week in review:
- A round trip. Monday and Tuesday, luxury equities were dumped with everything else, as a deepening AI-driven tech selloff dragged the Nasdaq lower, gold fell more than 6 percent on the week, and oil collapsed back below 70 dollars. The European luxury complex fell as much as 6 percent at its worst.
- The decoupling. On Wednesday, luxury rallied even as the broad market kept falling, the first sign the de-rating had found a floor. On Thursday the recovery broadened to the last holdouts, the listed watch retailers, which had slid for three straight sessions before finally turning.
- Standout and laggard. Pandora was the week's clear winner, climbing almost every session to fresh highs. Watches of Switzerland and Swatch were the laggards, under pressure most of the week before stabilizing.
- The constant. The resale market never flinched. It held flat at its cycle highs from Monday to Friday, and the saleroom kept producing trophies (a $63.9M Modigliani in London this week). The equities were pricing macro, rates, risk, and a tech-led liquidation, not a demand problem.
- The tell for next week. After Thursday's close, blowout Micron earnings sparked a ~400 billion dollar AI-chip rally, the first hint the rout that drove all this may be ending. Watch the resale series: it has been right all week.

Where it stands (latest close, Thursday June 25):
- European luxury: LVMH 494.40 euros, Hermès 1,613.50 euros, Richemont 186.35 Swiss francs, Kering 267.90 euros, Swatch 206.20 Swiss francs, Watches of Switzerland 708.0 pence, Pandora 709.00 Danish kroner (the week's standout).
- Friday's session was quiet and mixed into the open.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid returns Monday at 6 AM ET

June 25: European Luxury Rises as Tech Falls a Fourth Day; Watches of Switzerland Snaps a 3-Day Slide; the Resale Anchor Holds
Last night we asked whether the luxury bounce would broaden to the listed watch retailers and hold. Tonight: it did. For a second straight session, European luxury rose even as the broad market fell again, and the watch retailers, down three days running, finally turned. The floor we flagged is looking real, exactly as our resale data implied.

ALT/FNDATA
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- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260625-p

The signal:
- A thesis confirmed. Monday and Tuesday, luxury equities were oversold on the macro. Yesterday they bounced narrowly; today the bounce broadened to the last holdouts, the watch names. The de-rating was about rates and risk, not demand.
- The macro stayed under pressure into the US close (Nasdaq down 2.5 percent, a fourth day of the AI selloff; gold down ~3 percent; oil down ~5 percent), yet European luxury decoupled upward again, with the watch names turning: Swatch +1.6 percent, Watches of Switzerland +0.6 percent (first up day in four).
- The tell for tomorrow: after the close, Micron's blowout earnings ignited a ~400 billion dollar AI-chip rally across Asia, the first sign the week's tech rout may be ending. If the macro headwind lifts, the luxury floor only firms.
- The resale market never moved. Through four whipsaw sessions it has sat at cycle highs. The equities were pricing rates and a tech liquidation, not a demand problem, and are now converging back toward the demand our data measures. The test flips from "will the bounce broaden?" to "does it stick?"

The board (today's close):
- European luxury: LVMH 494.40 euros (+0.3%), Hermès 1,613.50 euros (-0.9%), Richemont 186.35 Swiss francs (+0.5%), Kering 267.90 euros (+1.0%), Brunello Cucinelli 81.14 euros (-1.5%), Burberry 1,083.0 pence (+1.2%), Swatch 206.20 Swiss francs (+1.6%), Watches of Switzerland 708.0 pence (+0.6%), Pandora 709.00 Danish kroner (+3.0%).
- US-listed: Tapestry 146.00 dollars (-3.0%), Capri 18.86 dollars (-1.5%), Signet 83.63 dollars (-1.5%), Movado 38.09 dollars (-1.6%), Ferrari 352.20 dollars (+2.1%).
- Macro: Nasdaq down 2.6 percent, S&P 500 down 0.8 percent, gold about 4,041 dollars an ounce (down 3.4 percent), WTI crude 71.47 dollars (down 4.5 percent), the dollar index 101.4 (up 0.4 percent), US 10-year yield about 4.4 percent.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET

June 24: The Luxury De-Rate Finds a Floor; Richemont +4% and Pandora +6% as Tech Routs Again; Watch Retailers the Lone Holdout
After two days of falling with the macro, the luxury equities decoupled and rallied, even as the tech selloff deepened and gold and oil cratered. The first sign the de-rating is finding a floor, which fits what our resale data has said all along: the selling was about rates and risk, not demand. The lone holdout was the listed watch retailers, down a third straight day.

ALT/FNDATA
- Book a Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260624
- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260624-r
- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260624-p

The signal:
- The macro stayed ugly: the Nasdaq fell another 3.4 percent on deepening AI-spending fears, gold broke below 4,100 dollars, and oil collapsed almost 9 percent under 70 dollars. Yet European luxury went the other way, with Richemont up 4 percent, Pandora up almost 6 percent, and LVMH, Hermès, and Kering each up 1 to 2 percent.
- The exception: the listed watch retailers kept sliding. Watches of Switzerland fell for a third straight session, with Swatch, Signet, and Movado all lower. The watch names are being singled out even on an up day for luxury.
- The resale market has not moved. Through three volatile sessions, the top of our database has sat at its cycle highs: a watch at 10.8 million dollars, a jewel at about 25.6 million, a Birkin near half a million, plus a recent Phillips New York sale that was the highest-grossing watch auction in US history.
- The test: watch whether the bounce broadens to the watch retailers and holds, and whether the resale series stays firm. If resale holds, the floor is real and the de-rating was a macro story. If resale rolls over, the watch retailers were the early warning and the bounce is a trap.

The board (today's close):
- European luxury: LVMH 493.00 euros (up 1.9 percent), Hermès 1,629.00 euros (up 1.5 percent), Richemont 185.50 Swiss francs (up 4.0 percent), Kering 265.35 euros (up 1.0 percent), Brunello Cucinelli 82.42 euros (up 0.7 percent), Burberry 1,085.0 pence (down 1.6 percent), Swatch 202.90 Swiss francs (down 0.7 percent), Watches of Switzerland 707.5 pence (down 1.7 percent), Pandora 688.60 Danish kroner (up 5.6 percent).
- US-listed: Tapestry 149.75 dollars (up 0.4 percent), Capri 19.13 dollars (down 1.7 percent), Signet 85.09 dollars (down 1.9 percent), Movado 37.99 dollars (down 3.2 percent), Ferrari 348.75 dollars (up 0.1 percent).
- Macro: Nasdaq down 3.4 percent, S&P 500 down 2.0 percent, gold about 4,014 dollars an ounce (down 5.0 percent, below 4,100), WTI crude 69.87 dollars (down 8.8 percent, below 70), US 10-year yield about 4.4 percent, the dollar index near a one-year high.

Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET