As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the conflict is not fading — it is evolving, driven by shifting alliances, war economies, and regional opportunism that could reshape the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. While global attention is fixed elsewhere, the forces sustaining this war, from Gulf rivalries to cross-border militia networks, are evolving in ways that extend instability far beyond Sudan’s borders.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Senior Research Assistant Nohad Eltayeb unpack the drivers of this new phase of war: the UAE’s role in RSF supply routes and political pressure on SAF, how Chad’s border closure has driven up RSF transport and fuel costs, militia networks stretching toward Niger, and how fractured loyalties and fluid alliances are entrenching long-term conflict fragmentation.

Can a war built on shifting alliances, militia economies, and foreign patrons end through negotiation — or does fragmentation become the next phase of conflict?

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An assassination attempt on the US president.
A surge of coordinated attacks in Mali.
Rising violence in Chad.
Continued fighting in Lebanon.

As the Iran war reaches 60 days, what’s emerging isn’t a clear path forward, but a global landscape shaped by distraction, opportunism, and escalation. While attention remains fixed on Iran, violence elsewhere is accelerating — often with far less scrutiny.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the significant developments over the last 48 hours alone - and the dynamics driving this moment — from stalled negotiations and economic pressure in Iran, to the resurgence of conflict across the Sahel and the Middle East.

The question isn’t just whether the Iran war will escalate — but how many other conflicts already are.

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JNIM. Islamic State Sahel Province. Boko Haram.

These are the groups driving a surge in violence across the Sahel—now the world’s deadliest region for terrorism.

Across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, attacks are escalating at a pace that outstrips every other region globally. Coups, foreign troop withdrawals, and weakening state control have created space for militant groups to expand, adapt, and entrench themselves across vast areas of the region.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Sahel expert Heni Nsaibia to unpack how the Sahel became the global epicentre of terrorism. Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, they break down the strategies of these groups, the role of military-led governments, and the local dynamics fuelling the spread of violence.

The question isn’t just why the Sahel has become so deadly—but how far this instability could spread, and what it means for global security.

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Six weeks into the Iran conflict, the tides are shifting rapidly—and the stakes could not be higher.

As the U.S. and Israel escalate their military posture, threatening to impose a naval blockade on Iran, a new chapter in regional power plays is unfolding—one that could redefine control over the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf.

In this episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED expert Bassel Doueik delve into the decisions fueling Iran’s vulnerability, the implications of the U.S. blockade, and Israel's asymmetric warfare tactics. Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, they break down the complex web of regional actors, from Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon to the Saudi and Gulf states' subtle balancing act, and the economic chokehold designed to weaken Iran from within.

The question isn't just what happens next, but how these strategic moves could tip the balance of power and reshape alliances for years to come.

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A ceasefire has been announced in the Iran war — but is this really de-escalation, or a strategic defeat for the United States and its allies?

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down the fragile Iran ceasefire, the unanswered questions around the deal, and why control of the Strait of Hormuz could leave Tehran in a stronger position than before.

They unpack what the reported terms may mean for Iran’s nuclear programme, Gulf security, Israel’s position, Lebanon, Hezbollah, oil markets, and the wider regional balance of power. With details still unclear and violence still threatening to continue, the bigger question is whether this is peace or just the end of one phase of the war.

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President Trump said the Iran war objectives ‘near completion’ in a televised speech last night - But what does that actually mean?

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh unpacks the latest developments in the Iran war with ACLED’s Media Manager, Bron Mills — from Iran’s leverage over key shipping routes to the limits of Israel’s decapitation strategy.

They also explore how the conflict is reshaping global dynamics, with ripple effects reaching Russia and Ukraine, energy markets, and the fragile political landscape of the Horn of Africa.

With no clear endgame in sight, the bigger question remains: what would victory even look like?

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The Iran war took another turn this weekend as Yemen’s Houthi movement officially entered the conflict, launching missile attacks against Israel and outlining new red lines that could pull more actors into the fight.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's Yemen expert Dr Luca Nevola to unpack what the Houthis’ decision means for the region. Why did they intervene now after weeks of restraint? Why target Israel instead of the Red Sea? And what does their strategy reveal about the wider “Axis of Resistance”?

They also explore the war's growing complexity — from Hezbollah’s role and Gulf state calculations to the escalating contest over the Strait of Hormuz and the risk that instability spreads further across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

As new fronts emerge and strategic red lines are drawn, the question is no longer just how this war began, but how far it could spread.

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One month into the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the focus is often on the battlefield. But wars rarely stay confined to one region.

In this special extended edition of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED founder and CEO Clionadh Raleigh brings together regional experts from across the organisation to examine how the conflict is already reshaping dynamics far beyond the Middle East.

From Lebanon and Iraq to the Gulf and beyond, the panel explores how the war is spreading through alliances, militias, political networks, and economic pressures, and where new risks could emerge if escalation continues.

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