Global Canola Market Weekly Summary

• Canada's canola prices eased to CAD 704.90 per ton following a ceasefire among Iran, the United States, and Israel, though crush margins remain healthy at CAD 3.50 per ton above nearby futures, reflecting solid domestic processing demand. Looking ahead, elevated input costs risk reducing fertilizer application and weighing on yields in 2026. Ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and the approaching expiration of the May futures contract are adding further price volatility. Canadian exports to China have declined noticeably, threatening ending stocks, and while a 15% tariff reduction has generated port lineup activity, actual purchases have not yet reached expected levels.
• In the United States, the EPA's latest renewable fuel standard is driving increased canola oil demand for biofuel. Although canola oil use in this sector fell 40% in 2025 relative to 2024, the trend is expected to reverse through 2026, supported by policy measures and growing health endorsements for canola oil.
• The European Union is reducing canola imports in favor of oilseeds offering stronger processing margins, a shift that is reshaping trade flows for both Canada and Australia. Geopolitical disruption and logistical bottlenecks are adding complexity to EU sourcing decisions and encouraging more localized supply strategies.
• Australia's export program is performing strongly, with substantial volumes flowing to Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany, alongside rising interest from China. Favorable harvest conditions and upward revisions to production estimates reinforce Australia's competitive position, and continued Persian Gulf instability may further consolidate Europe as its primary destination.