Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary

The global cocoa market is navigating a period of significant strain, with drought conditions, falling prices, and income reductions for farmers converging to create a challenging outlook across major producing regions.

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast continues to lead global cocoa production, recording a slight increase in port shipments for the 2025/26 marketing year, totaling 1,450,000 metric tons. However, drought conditions now affect more than half the country, posing material risks to mid-crop yields. In response to declining cocoa prices, the government has reduced farmer pay by 57% beginning April 2026. This income contraction carries longer-term implications: reduced investment in production capacity could weigh on future output. Overall production for the season is still projected to decline 10.8% year on year, reaching approximately 1,650,000 metric tons, with surplus forecasts revised downward accordingly.

Ghana

Ghana faces similar pressures. The official farm gate price has been cut by nearly 30% for the current season, and drought conditions now affect roughly two thirds of the country. These combined factors pose serious risks to yield outcomes and farmer livelihoods. Port shipments remain relatively stable, suggesting near-term supply continuity, but ongoing policy adjustments and climate adversity are adding complexity to the sector and may affect production levels in coming seasons.

Nigeria

Nigeria presents a more mixed picture. December 2025 cocoa exports rose 17% year on year, a notable short-term gain. Despite this, the full-season production forecast for 2025/26 anticipates an 11% decline from the prior year, likely reflecting regional pricing volatility and adverse weather effects on yields.