Global Soybean Market Weekly Summary

• Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production forecast has been revised upward to 48,600,000 tons, supported by better than expected early yield performance despite a 400,000 hectare reduction in planted area to 17,200,000 hectares. Late season rainfall has materially bolstered crop outcomes, with only 10.2% of the harvest completed to date. Domestic crush capacity is estimated at 41,000,000 tons, underpinning 29,000,000 tons of projected meal exports and reinforcing Argentina's leading position in global soy product trade.
• China's soybean imports reached 4,200,000 tons as of April 2026, reflecting a broader sourcing realignment toward Argentine and Brazilian origin, which collectively supplied 83% of total imports from October through March. A phytosanitary dispute with Brazil over weed seed contamination levels has introduced logistical delays at Brazilian ports, though strong import activity continues to signal sustained crushing demand for domestic use.
• Brazil's 2025/26 production forecast is exceptional at 178,110,000 metric tons, driven by yield gains across expanded planted area. Despite this record output, exports are projected to decline approximately 3% to 105,000,000 metric tons in 2026, reflecting logistical constraints including high freight costs, administrative slowdowns at export terminals, and a strategic shift toward greater domestic processing and stock accumulation.
• The United States has seen a 19% year on year decline in soybean export volumes in 2026. A $14,000,000 allocation under the America First Trade Promotion Program is directed at technical and market development in emerging markets, though this is widely viewed as insufficient to offset competitive pressure from lower cost South American supply. The domestic policy response centers on expanding crushing capacity and scaling biofuel production to absorb surplus beans.