Global Wheat Market Weekly Summary

• Kazakhstan's wheat stocks stood at 10.8 million tons as of 1 April 2026, with the bulk held in northern regions including Akmola, Kostanay, and North Kazakhstan, and approximately 3.5 million tons stored in commercial elevators. An import ban on Russian grain introduced on 21 March has created logistical complications, with a portion of grain remaining isolated within elevator networks. Despite this, Kazakhstan exported around 875,000 tons in January and is forecasting total marketing year exports of between 10 and 10.5 million tons for 2025/26, with effective distribution policy identified as critical to balancing domestic supply against export commitments.
• India's 2026 wheat procurement season is underway, with daily regional arrivals reaching 30,562 metric tons by mid-April against a government minimum support price of INR 2,585 per quintal. National production is estimated at 113.5 million tons, below initial expectations, contributing to tighter domestic supply. Delayed lifting at mandis is creating logistical bottlenecks that risk complicating procurement efficiency.
• Pakistan's Rabi 2025/26 wheat harvest has commenced, with output projected at 29.31 million tons. Weather challenges and procurement center inefficiencies pose risks to harvest and distribution cycles, while the country's ongoing reliance on wheat imports remains a structural feature of its supply balance.
• In the United States, drought conditions across Kansas and Oklahoma are weighing on hard red winter wheat, increasing yield loss risks. National stocks of 25.3 million tons provide a near-term buffer, though sustained adverse weather could challenge coverage of new crop deficits.
• Russia exported 1.1 million tons in early April following adjustments to export duties and quotas, reflecting efforts to strengthen its global market presence. Domestic pricing pressures and port logistics remain constraints that will determine whether Russia can maintain this export pace through the remainder of the 2026 marketing year.