Episodes

  • 2026.2.20 US Market Close | Market rallies as Supreme Court ruling on tariffs eases uncertainty

    2026.2.20 US Market Close | Market rallies as Supreme Court ruling on tariffs eases uncertainty
    Feb 20 2026
    On February 20, the US stock market closed with strong gains, driven by a Supreme Court ruling that curbed tariff powers, despite weak economic data. The market initially opened lower following a Q4 GDP growth shock and higher-than-expected inflation figures. However, expectations of reduced tariff uncertainty dramatically revived investor sentiment, pushing the market higher. - S&P 500: +0.69% - Closed higher on hopes that the Supreme Court's tariff-related decision would resolve uncertainty. - Nasdaq Composite: +0.90% - The tech-heavy index also saw strong gains, fueled by anticipation of tariff relief. - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.47% - Rose in line with the broader recovery in market sentiment. Key Issues - Supreme Court Curbs Tariff Authority: The court ruled it unconstitutional for the executive branch to impose broad tariffs without congressional approval, driving the market upward. This sparked expectations of significantly reduced cost burdens and uncertainty for businesses. - Weak Economic Data: Q4 GDP growth came in at just 1.4%, well below the 3.0% forecast. Additionally, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation gauge for the Fed, rose 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%, fueling stagflation concerns. - Administration's Immediate Response: Shortly after the ruling, the administration announced a new 10% global tariff, effective for 150 days under the Trade Act of 1974, suggesting that trade policy tensions could continue in a different form. - Retail and Consumer Goods Sectors Rally: Companies in the retail and consumer goods sectors, expected to be direct beneficiaries of tariff relief, showed strong performance. Notably, the retail ETF (XRT) posted gains that outpaced the broader market. Key Stocks - BlackRock (BLK): +1.77% - The stock closed higher despite concerns over profitability, as its future growth narrative, highlighted by its core risk management platform 'Aladdin' and its spot Bitcoin ETF, gained traction.
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    16 mins
  • 2026.2.19 US Market Close | Stocks fall as cautious corporate forecasts overshadow solid earnings

    2026.2.19 US Market Close | Stocks fall as cautious corporate forecasts overshadow solid earnings
    Feb 19 2026
    On February 19, US markets closed lower across the board as cautious future outlooks from major companies like Walmart overshadowed strong Q4 earnings. Mixed signals on the Fed's monetary policy also heightened market uncertainty, dampening investor sentiment. Major Indices - Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.54% - Weighed down by cautious forecasts from major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot. - S&P 500: Down 0.28% - Impacted by conservative corporate guidance and growing uncertainty over the Fed's monetary policy. - Nasdaq Composite: Down 0.31% - Tech stocks also fell amid the overall decline in investor sentiment. Key Issues - Cautious Corporate Outlooks: Major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot issued conservative guidance, citing concerns about a future slowdown in consumer spending despite reporting solid earnings. This spread fears of a broader economic slowdown across the market. - Mixed Signals from the Fed: While the previous day's FOMC minutes revealed a hawkish tone, even mentioning the possibility of further rate hikes, dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on the day amplified uncertainty about the future path of interest rates. - Conflicting Economic Data: Weekly initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, suggesting a robust labor market. However, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell short of estimates. This mixed data made it difficult for investors to determine market direction. - Focus on PCE Inflation Data: Market attention is now centered on the upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The results are expected to significantly influence future interest rate policy expectations. Key Stocks - Walmart (WMT): Down 1.38% - The stock fell after the company provided guidance for slowing future sales growth, despite reporting better-than-expected earnings. - Home Depot (HD): Down 1.29% - Shares weakened following a cautious earnings outlook that reflected concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending. - Coupang (CPNG): Down 0.83% - The stock closed lower as concerns grew over financial uncertainty following its acquisition of Farfetch and regulatory risks in South Korea.
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    16 mins
  • 2026.2.18 US Market Close | A divergent market driven by corporate earnings amid Fed caution

    2026.2.18 US Market Close | A divergent market driven by corporate earnings amid Fed caution
    Feb 18 2026
    On February 18, US markets hit new all-time highs, showing a divergent performance driven by individual corporate earnings despite the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. Market focus is shifting from macroeconomic indicators to corporate fundamentals, with a notable mix of fortunes among AI-related stocks. Major Indices - S&P 500: Up 0.56% - Reached a new all-time high as the Fed's caution on rate cuts was interpreted as a reduction in uncertainty. - Nasdaq: Up 0.78% - Closed higher, led by a strong performance in tech stocks. - Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 0.26% - Joined the upward trend to close in the green. Key Issues - Fed's Cautious Stance Reaffirmed: The January FOMC minutes confirmed that a majority of Fed officials agreed there was no need to rush into rate cuts until they gain greater confidence in inflation's trajectory. - Increased Scrutiny within the AI Theme: The market is moving beyond the initial AI hype, now differentiating between companies that can translate AI potential into concrete profits and those that can't. - Shift in Focus from Macro to Micro: With some of the uncertainty around the Fed's monetary policy clearing up, investors are now paying closer attention to individual company fundamentals and earnings reports. - Clash of Growth Narratives and Financial Risks: Figma's stock surged on expectations of its AI-driven growth story, but financial risks, such as excessive stock-based compensation costs exceeding revenue, highlighted market concerns. Key Stocks - Analog Devices (ADI): Surged nearly 8% after announcing a Q2 earnings forecast that beat market expectations, driven by strong demand from AI data centers. - Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Plunged over 6.8% after lowering its full-year profit forecast, citing increased costs related to integrating acquired companies. - Figma (FIG): Rose 4.69% on optimism surrounding its growth narrative of evolving into a collaborative operating system powered by AI.
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    15 mins
  • 2026.2.17 US Market Close | A mixed session amid Fed caution and fears of AI disruption

    2026.2.17 US Market Close | A mixed session amid Fed caution and fears of AI disruption
    Feb 17 2026
    On February 17, the US stock market finished mixed as investors weighed the Fed's cautious stance against concerns over AI-driven disruption. Hawkish comments from Fed officials dampened hopes for rate cuts, while the AI theme created a sharp divide among tech stocks, with both excitement and fear driving performance. Major Indices - Dow Jones: +0.07% - Finished flat, influenced by the Fed's cautious tone and company-specific news. - S&P 500: +0.1% - Edged slightly higher in a mixed session featuring both AI beneficiaries and victims. - Nasdaq: +0.14% - Closed in the green as a surge in Apple offset weakness in software stocks. Key Market Movers - The Fed's Cautious Stance Continues: Officials, including Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr, reiterated that there is no rush to cut interest rates, causing expectations for an early rate cut to recede. - The Two Faces of AI: Fears that AI could disrupt existing industries sent software stocks like Salesforce lower. In contrast, Apple surged on news of developing new AI-powered wearable devices, showcasing the dual nature of the AI theme. - M&A and Company-Specific News: The market took notice of reports that Warner Bros. and Paramount have resumed merger talks. Meanwhile, individual stock performance varied, with General Mills declining after lowering its earnings forecast. - Awaiting Key Economic Data: Investors remained on the sidelines ahead of this week's release of the FOMC minutes and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Key Stocks - Apple (AAPL): Jumped over 2% - Emerged as a key AI beneficiary on news of developing new wearable devices, including AI-powered smart glasses. - Paramount (PARA): Surged more than 3% following reports that merger talks with Warner Bros. Discovery have resumed. - Salesforce (CRM): Dropped 3.5% amid growing concerns that AI could replace existing software solutions. - General Mills (GIS): Fell over 2% after cutting its full-year sales forecast, citing weakening consumer sentiment.
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    20 mins
  • 2026.2.13 US Market Close | Tech stocks drop on hot CPI report as small caps surge

    2026.2.13 US Market Close | Tech stocks drop on hot CPI report as small caps surge
    Feb 13 2026
    On February 13, the US stock market closed mixed as a hotter-than-expected January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report led to a divergence among the major indices. Fading hopes for a near-term rate cut put pressure on tech stocks, while a resilient economy fueled a rally in small-cap stocks, creating a clear split in the market. Major Index Performance - Dow Jones: +0.1% - Edged higher despite weakness in the tech sector. - S&P 500: +0.05% - Closed with a slight gain. - Nasdaq: -0.22% - Declined as rate cut expectations receded following a 0.3% monthly core CPI reading that topped forecasts. - Russell 2000: +1.18% - Surged as capital rotated from big tech into small-cap stocks. Key Market Movers - Hot CPI Delays Rate Cut Hopes: The January Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding market forecasts of 0.2%. This fueled concerns that the Fed might postpone rate cuts until June or later. - Tech vs. Small-Cap Divergence: While the Nasdaq fell under the weight of interest rate concerns, the Russell 2000 jumped 1.18%, indicating a shift of funds into overlooked small-cap stocks supported by a robust economy. - A 'Fundamentals-Driven' Market Takes Hold: With the market's overall direction uncertain, investors are increasingly focusing on individual company earnings. This led to extreme divergence in stock performance, with companies reporting strong earnings surging while those with disappointing results plunged. - Microsoft's Growth vs. Regulatory Risks: The company showed strong growth, with its cloud division surging 39% on AI demand. However, an FTC antitrust investigation and a $28.9 billion tax dispute weighed on the stock. Key Stock Movements - Applied Materials (AMAT): Surged over 13% after delivering earnings and guidance that beat market expectations, driven by strong demand for AI chips. - Rivian (RIVN): Soared more than 20% after announcing a vehicle delivery forecast for the year that surpassed market projections. - Pinterest (PINS): Plunged over 12% after reporting Q4 revenue that missed estimates and providing disappointing Q1 guidance. - Microsoft (MSFT): Fell 0.74%, closing slightly lower as the company's strong AI-driven growth was offset by concerns over the FTC's antitrust probe.
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    17 mins
  • 2026.2.12 US Market Close | Markets fall on AI-driven tech sell-off and CPI anxiety

    2026.2.12 US Market Close | Markets fall on AI-driven tech sell-off and CPI anxiety
    Feb 12 2026
    On February 12, US markets saw a broad decline as major indices fell, driven by spreading fears that AI technology could disrupt certain industries and caution ahead of key inflation data. A sell-off centered on tech stocks led to a significant increase in market volatility. Major Indices - Dow Jones: Down 1.3% - Declined amid the AI-driven tech sell-off and caution before the CPI release. - S&P 500: Down over 1.5% - Weakness across the tech sector and heightened market anxiety. - Nasdaq: Plunged over 2% - Fears that AI could disrupt existing industries drove the tech sell-off. Key Market Movers - Fears of AI Disruption: Concerns grew that AI could replace business models and jobs in specific sectors, causing stocks in logistics, software, and commercial real estate to plunge. - Caution Ahead of CPI Data: Ahead of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, the market was pressured by worries that a stall in disinflation could push back expectations for the Fed's rate cuts. - Shift to a Stock-Picker's Market: Analysts noted that the market is entering a phase of re-evaluating AI's impact, shifting from indiscriminate rallies to a focus on the viability of individual companies. - MicroStrategy's Debt Risk: Despite the potential for additional Bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy's stock was weighed down by its highly leveraged strategy and the looming 'wall of debt' risk starting in 2027. Top Movers - C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW): Tumbled over 14% - The stock was hit hard by growing concerns that AI could replace freight brokerage services. - CBRE Group (CBRE): Plunged over 8% - This followed analysis suggesting that AI advancements could reduce demand for office space and replace real estate brokerage services. - MicroStrategy (MSTR): Down over 3.7% - The potential for a liquidity crisis inherent in its leveraged Bitcoin investment strategy came into focus.
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    14 mins
  • 2026.2.11 US Market Close | Market diverges on earnings as strong jobs report weighs

    2026.2.11 US Market Close | Market diverges on earnings as strong jobs report weighs
    Feb 11 2026
    On February 11, US markets closed mixed as a stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Amid broad market pressure, it was a day of sharp divergence between stocks with clear growth drivers, like those in Artificial Intelligence (AI), and companies that reported weak earnings. Major Indices - S&P 500: Down 0.005% - Finished virtually flat as pressure from the strong jobs report was offset by individual company earnings. - Dow Jones: Down 0.13% - Edged lower amid concerns over delayed Fed rate cuts. - Nasdaq 100: Up 0.29% - Closed higher, led by AI-related tech stocks in a market driven by earnings differentiation. Key Issues - Stronger-than-expected jobs report: Nonfarm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 70,000. The higher-than-anticipated growth in average hourly earnings also dampened hopes for an early rate cut from the Fed. - Sharp divergence based on earnings: Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, a stock-picker's market emerged where companies with proven growth, such as AI stocks, surged, while those with disappointing earnings and outlooks plunged. - Rate cut expectations recede: Following the strong employment data, the probability of a March rate cut plummeted to below 8%, with the market now pricing in the first cut for June or later. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 4.17%. - Focus shifts to upcoming key data: Market attention is now turning to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on the 13th and the FOMC minutes release on the 18th, which could lead to increased volatility. Key Stocks - Vertiv (VRT): Surged over 24% after raising its full-year 2026 guidance, citing strong demand from AI. - Lyft (LYFT): Plunged nearly 17% after reporting an unexpected operating loss and providing a weak first-quarter forecast. - Cloudflare (NET): Rose more than 5% on the back of a fourth-quarter earnings beat and a positive full-year outlook. - Mattel (MAT): Tumbled nearly 25% after a significant earnings miss, with holiday shopping season results falling far short of expectations.
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    16 mins
  • 2026.2.10 US Market Close | Market diverges on mixed earnings and signs of slowing consumption

    2026.2.10 US Market Close | Market diverges on mixed earnings and signs of slowing consumption
    Feb 10 2026
    The US stock market closed mixed on February 10, as signs of a consumer slowdown clashed with divergent corporate earnings forecasts. The session was marked by significant divergence across sectors and individual stocks, with investors focusing more on future guidance than on past results. Major Indices - Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 0.1%, hitting a new all-time high, supported by gains in some industrial and healthcare stocks. - Nasdaq Composite: Fell 0.59%, weighed down by major tech stocks amid concerns over conservative corporate outlooks. - S&P 500: Declined 0.33%, dragged lower by weakness in the tech sector. Key Issues - Consumer Slowdown Concerns: Pre-market retail sales data came in unexpectedly flat, highlighting concerns about weakening consumer sentiment. - Disappointing Corporate Guidance: Companies like Coca-Cola and Lyft weighed on the market by issuing conservative annual forecasts, despite reporting solid Q4 earnings. - Big Tech Weakness: Major tech stocks, including Nvidia and Alphabet, fell in tandem as broader market caution spread, even without specific negative catalysts. - Salesforce Volatility: The stock experienced significant intraday volatility, caught between optimism for its AI initiatives and concerns over increased competition and new business risks. - Awaiting Key Economic Data: Investors remained on the sidelines, anticipating the release of this week's Jobs Report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Key Stocks - Coca-Cola (KO): Fell 1.49%. Although Q4 earnings beat expectations, the stock declined after the company issued 2026 annual guidance that fell short of market consensus. - Lyft (LYFT): Plunged over 14% in after-hours trading. The company provided a weak Q1 profit forecast and announced an unexpected operating loss for 2025, severely chilling investor sentiment. - Nvidia (NVDA): Dropped 0.79%, impacted by weakening sentiment across the tech sector due to signs of a consumer slowdown and downbeat forecasts from other companies. - Alphabet (GOOGL): Slid 1.77% amid profit-taking and risk-off moves in big tech stocks. - Salesforce (CRM): Gained 0.77%. The stock initially surged on AI optimism following a competitor's strong earnings but gave back most of its gains to close slightly higher amid concerns about intensifying competition.
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    12 mins