Episode 76: Rising pressure on Russian oil flows
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Episode 76: Rising pressure on Russian oil flows
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About this listen
Oil markets were driven by geopolitics this week, with Iran-related headlines triggering sharp swings in price. In this episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks what the latest moves mean for the oil risk premium, before turning to crude markets and India’s buying patterns, Russian supply, and Middle East replacement flows.
Chapters
(00:31) Geopolitics and the oil risk premium Iran de-escalation headlines versus military incidents, India’s strategic role, and why crude remains headline-led into the weekend.
(09:57) Gasoline: contango, storage, and curve signals US inventory builds, Europe’s extreme carry, and how contango is supporting the prompt while pushing risk into Q2.
(20:16) Crude: India buying, Russian supply, and Middle East barrels Replacement economics, Saudi OSP expectations, Lunar New Year liquidity, and why AG grades are best positioned near term.
(28:23) Trade box: AG differentials bull case vs bear case Why spot diffs could firm, what caps the upside, and how China stockbuilding complicates the outlook.
(30:30) Fuel oil and middle distillates quickfire Venezuela’s impact on heavy molecules, Russian HSSA outlets, diesel arbs, and freight steering flows into Europe.