Hear from Dr. Luke Kemp of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, as we dive into the risk factors for societal collapse in both the past and future.

When risk professionals talk about systemic risk, we usually mean markets, institutions, and interconnected exposures. But zoom out far enough, and there's a bigger question underneath it all: what makes an entire society resilient – or vulnerable – to collapse?

That's why in this episode, we explore the history and future of societal collapse through a risk lens: looking at how complex systems fail, how multiple threats compound, and the early warning signs of collapse. We discuss:

· What societal collapse actually means in practice, and why it's rarely a single event, but a buildup of stresses and cascading failures;

· How inequality amplifies fragility, weakening trust, institutions, and the capacity to respond when shocks hit;

· And what a real-world "collapse risk dashboard" might look like for societies.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com

Links from the discussion:

• Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/321192/goliaths-curse-by-kemp-luke/9780241741238

Speaker's Bio

Dr. Luke Kemp, Research Affiliate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge

Luke researches the end of the world. He is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. He has advised and led foresight studies for multiple international organisations, including the WHO and Convention on Biological Diversity. His work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, the New York Times, and the New Yorker. He is the author of the bestselling book Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.

Hear from Judson Berkey, Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS, as we learn first-hand how banks are approaching nature risk.

Within finance, nature is usually treated as background: important, but invisible. However, that is beginning to change. New frameworks, regulations, and expectations are emerging worldwide, and many firms are starting to measure their impacts and dependencies on nature.

In this episode, we explore how that shift is happening from the perspective of someone inside one of the world's largest banks. We discuss:

• Which lessons from climate disclosure apply to nature, and which do not;
• Why some regulatory approaches to ESG-type topics are more effective than others; and
• The importance of not waiting for perfect data before taking action.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com

Speaker's Bio

Judson Berkey, Managing Director, Chief Sustainability Office, UBS

Judson is a Managing Director in the Chief Sustainability Office at UBS based in Zurich where he has worked since 2003 on global risk, regulatory and compliance topics. He currently focuses on sustainable finance policy and regulation including engagement with policymakers and standard setters. He also leads UBS work on nature. He graduated from Harvard Law School and the University of Virginia and is on the board of ECOFACT. He currently chairs the Institute of International Finance Sustainable Finance Working Group and represents UBS on the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures and Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero Steering Group.

Hear from Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, as we explore the potential of positive tipping points in accelerating the transition to a net-zero economy.

What happens when the conversation about climate change shifts from avoiding disaster to unlocking positive change? Suddenly, it's not just about risk - it's about momentum. Because while some systems may be close to dangerous tipping points, others – like clean energy, electric transport, and sustainable food – are tipping in the right direction.

That's why in this episode, we explore how to accelerate those positive shifts, including:

· How smart policies can trigger widespread, self-reinforcing change across economies and societies;

· Why leveraging social norms and human behavior is just as critical as investing in technology;

· And what it takes to create the tipping points that move us toward a stable climate, not away from one.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com

Links from today's discussion:

• Tim's previous podcast appearance - https://www.garp.org/podcast/complexities-climate-risk-cr-201102
• Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis - https://academic.oup.com/book/60007
• Global Tipping Points Report 2025 - https://global-tipping-points.org/

Speaker's Bio

Prof. Tim Lenton OBE, Founding Director, Global Systems Institute, and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science, University of Exeter

Tim is the founding Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science. He has more than 25 years research experience, focused on modelling of the biosphere, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and associated tipping points. Tim is renowned for his work identifying climate tipping points, which informed the setting of the 1.5C climate target, associated net zero targets, and nationally determined contributions.

Tim works with policymakers and businesses helping them assess the risks of climate change and nature loss and highlighting the opportunities for 'positive tipping points' that can accelerate change towards net zero. In 2023, Professor Lenton led a team of more than 200 people from over 90 organisations in 26 countries to produce an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. The 'Global Tipping Points Report' produced in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund was published at COP28.