In this episode we follow up on the implications of the American capture of President Maduro of Venezuela and President Trump's anouncements about the nature and future of American foreign policy. We apologise if it seems we are paying undue attention to this but it is very important and is radically reshaping the world we live in. President Trump has also announced (again) that the USA needs Greenland for national security, that he will run Venezuela and its oil sales and that he aims to control the western hemisphere: that it the half of the globe which stretches from the mid Pacific to the Greenwich meridian in London and includes both north and south America, Canada, Greenland and the Caribbean. This represents both a pull back from previous American foreign policy which saw itself as a global 'hegemon' running what is termed the rules based international order, to a much more explicit 'America first' focusing primarily on the western hemisphere. This has implications for Europe which president Trump now seems to see as not very important, and for the role of major global powers - notably America, China and Russia. We discuss to what extent, if at all, it is possible to draw parallels with George Orwell's novel 1984 (published in 1948) which envisaged a world divided into three competing power blocs - Oceania, Eurasia and East Asia - all constantly at war with one another. We hope this distopian vision remains just that but it is clear is that President Trump is both responding too and reshaping global political geographies.

This episode looks at the geography and geopolitics of oil and gas - its distribution, its production and consumption. Energy, and particularly oil and gas, are crucial to making the modern world go round and they have been for well over 100 years. Big US oil companies emerged in the 1920s and BP became a major player in Persia (now Iran). Together they account for just over half of world energy use. But the distribution of oil and gas resources is very uneven, as is production and consumption. The USA account for 20% of global oil consumption, followed by China at 15% and then a long tail of other countries with 5% and under. But in terms of production the US accounts for 22%, followed by Saudi Arabia 11% and Russia at 11%. So, the US is roughly in balance in production and consumption but this is relatively new, after the discovery of shale oil in Texas and elsewhere. No less than 44% of world oil and gas is produced by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, which is why the Middle East has long been of major geopolitical importance, particularly for the USA. The North Sea oil and gas discoveries have been very important for both Britain and Norway since the 1960s ,although the North Sea fields are now very mature and production has fallen. Energy costs also soared in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and oil and gas exports were embargoed. But one of the most interesting aspects of oil and gas is the geographical distribution of proven resources and the fact that Venezuela has the worlds largest oil resources at 300 billion barrels, followed by Saudi Arabia at 267 billion, Iran at 209, and Iraq at 145 billion. Venezuela used to be a major producer until Chavez and then subsequently Maduro took control and nationalized the oil industry. Oil production then slumped. As you will hear at the end, we recorded the episode the evening of Friday 2nd January and woke on Saturday 3rd to find out that President Trump had mounted a military operation to capture president Maduro and put American oil companies in place. Coincidence or what?

The world is undergoing a process of rapid urbanization - the movement of population from rural to urban areas. This is very important because it means that an increasing share of the world's population now live in cities The UN estimated in 2007 that half (50%) the world population now lives in cities and maybe 70%+ by the end of this century. This is a dramatic change from the world of our ancestors which was still overwhelmingly rural. The urban population was still only 30% of the world total in 1950. In China the process has been extremely rapid going from about 15% urban in 1950 to 65%+ in 2025. 75 years ago 85% of China's population lived in rural areas. But although urbanization has speeded up rapidly in recent decades it started a long time ago. It really took off in Britain about 1800 at the start of the industrial revolution During the c19th the population of London rose from 1 million in 1801 to 6.5 million in 1901 and the population of Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Glasgow and other industrial cities rapidly exploded. A similar process took place in the USA in the late c19th and early C20th as cities like New York, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Detroit rapidly expanded. In Europe cities like Paris and Berlin also grew rapidly. But today the rapid urban growth is in the developing world, the Global South, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia where giant mega cities are emerging of over 20 million people cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Delhi, Mexico City and Cairo. Dhaka and Sao Paulo. It is estimated that by 2035 Africa will have 6 cities of over 10 million people with another 17 cities of over 5 million and 100 cities of over 1 million. Africa is the world most rapidly urbanizing region with cities like Dar es Salaam, Kinshasa, Luanda and Addis Ababa among the most rapidly growing. The problem is that while many rural migrants are attracted to the cities by a prospect of jobs, higher income and education, the reality is often very limited. In many rapidly growing there are major problems over the supply of drinking water, sewage and accommodation, and transport systems are often poor or non existent, with residents living 2 hours journey outside the city bycrowded minibus. The continuing urbanization of the world's population offers possibilities and many problems

At the end of November 2025 the US government published America's New National Security Strategy. This punchy, hard hitting, document did not mince its words. The basis of America's new security strategy is very clear:America first. To keep the USA at the forefront of the global economy , technology and defense. It was also clear that the current administration thinks that previous post war American foreign and strategic policy has been misguided and misplaced. It states that America's role is not to be the global proponent of democracy and peace worldwide. Rather, it has to put America's interests first and foremost. There is also a distinct geography to this policy. It is one of hemispheric dominance: the dominance of the western hemisphere stretching west for 180 degrees from the Greenwich Meridian. America sees its sphere of influence being primarily North and South America, stretching up to Greenland but also across the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The primary antagonist is clearly China, Europe is criticized for being weak kneed and Russia is scarcely mentioned except as a potential strategic partner. The Middle East is seen as being now largely sorted out and the rest of the world scarcely gets a mention. American foreign and defence policy under President Trump is reshaping the globe. Here is a link to the document. Its worth a read. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

In this episode we discuss some aspects of how and why geography matters. If we go back a hundred years or so there was an intellectual argument about the extent to which geography determined the future of a country or a region. Those who argued that it did were 'geographical determinists'. A recent example of this is the fascinating 2022 book by Ian Morris entitled 'Geography is Destiny: Britain and the World, a 10,000 Year History'. Put simply, Morris argues that Britain's position as an island on the NW corner of Europe has played a defining role in shaping Britain's history: particularly its rise as a maritime power.

More generally, geographical determinists argued that key aspects of physical geography: latitude, location, temperature, climate, soils, relief etc played a keys role in determining the economic development and history of different parts of the world. Europe developed early because a temperate climate and fertile soils permitted agricultural development etc. Clearly, physical geography does play an important role in shaping the development of different countries and regions. Antarctica has not, and is unlikely to ever, developed as a centre of agricultural production. Similarly with the Sahara, the Atacama and Nabian deserts. You will all be able to think of similar examples.

But there is an important difference between geography determining the development of a country or region and geography influencing, constraining or encouraging development . Klaus and I both argue that geography influences rather than determines (except in very extreme cases). But, that said, it can have very major influences in some cases. In terms of resource development (copper, iron ore, rare earths, oil and gas etc), the development can only take place if the resources are there in the first place. They cannot be conjured up out of thin air. But equally just because a resource is there does not mean that it will be or can be developed. We will pick up this argument in some subsequent episodes

This episode has a slightly different format. I discuss with Klaus Dodds, my co-host, and Mia Bennett of the University of Washington, their new book 'Unfrozen: the fight for the future of the Arctic'. It starts by asking both Mia and Klaus how they got interested in the Arctic and how it is defined. As they note, the Arctic is often defined as those areas north of 66 degrees of latitude (the Arctic circle), where the sun never sets in mid summer and never rises in the depth of winter. Some definitions go down to 60 degrees. The Arctic territory forms part of 8 countries: Russia is the largest with about 50 percent, followed by Canada, then Denmark (Greenland) and the USA, but it also includes Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Together these countries are permanent members of the Arctic council. The Arctic is inhabited by about 4 million people, mostly in Russia, of whom about a million are indigenous peoples, the others are involved in mining, resource exploitation, military, research etc. But other countries, notably India and China have also become interested in the Arctic, and China now has 5 icebreakers and is interested in the potential of the Arctic route for goods transport. What is clear is that the Arctic is under threat in a number of ways, notably from global warming and parts of the Arctic are warming at 3-4 times or more of the global average. This is causing major changes in vegetation, settlement and forms of living from reduction in ice cover. It also has big implications beyond the Arctic in terms of warming waters. The reduction in ice has important geo-political implications with different countries seeing new possibilities. Klaus and Mia suggest there are three major intertwined issues for the Arctic - that it is becoming increasingly climatically and ecologically endangered, that it faces increasing pressure for resource exploitation and it may become the site for more strategic conflict. The arctic is no longer just a remote place for polar bears and explorers. It is increasingly linked into the modern world in many different ways.

Global population changes are complex but it can be argued that many countries, but not all, fall into one of two groups, each with very different problems. First, there are the relatively poor, low income, developing countries with high birth rates and rapidly growing populations.Most sub Saharan African countries fall into this group. Second, there are richer, developed, countries with low birth rates and a generally slow growing, static or even falling population. Many European countries fall into this category and they face problems of shrinking labour force, an ageing population and growing welfare bills for pensions and health care. Not surprisingly there is a growing global trend for people to try to migrate from the first group to the second. Countries in the first group include Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and many other sub-Saharan countries. In many of the these countries over 50% of the population is aged 18 or under. By contrast, in Japan, the country with the oldest population in the world, some 30% of people are now aged 65 or over and many parts of rural Japan are now shrinking villages of the elderly. The birth rate in Japan is now far below replacement rate (2.1 children per woman) and the countries population is continuing to fall. Many European countries are not too far behind. Italy has 22% of its population over 65 and Finland, Greece, Portugal, Germany, Bulgaria, Croatia, France all have over 20%. But one of the least well known but most remarkable countries is China. It currently has a population of 1.3 bn but this has now peaked and is starting to fall. And, as consequence of Mao's one child policy and the subsequent rapid economic growth, very few families have more than one child and China's population is forecast to almost half by the end of the century on current trends. The problem now facing many affluent developed western countries is the falling proportion of economically active people and a growing, ageing, dependant population of retired people. This poses problems both for the cost of care and the supply of care workers and for expenditure on pensions. Not surprisingly, many young people are trying to migrate from the first group of countries to the second, though both Japan and China have relatively little inward migration from overseas.

Global population change is important and it has a distinct geography. But first its important to note some general changes. Global population has increased dramatically over the last 200 years. In 1800 the global population was estimated to be about 1 million. There were high birth rates, no modern medicines or health care, and high death rates. Most people died relatively young if they survived infancy and childhood.

Global population then began to increase quite slowly to about 2 billion by 1925, exactly 100 years ago. Since then, it is increased very rapidly with the developments in living standards, medicines and health care. It reached 3 billion in 1960 and 8.4 billion today. In the last 60 years global population has grown by about one billion every 12-15 years, largely as a result of the reduction in mortality.

People in the less developed world are less likely to die in childhood and people in the developed world are now living much longer. But, and this is an important but, people in the developed world are also having far fewer children. And global population growth is projected to slow and peak at about 10 billion by the end of this century.

But first its important to make two points about the relative population size of different countries. The population of the UK in 2025 is about 70m, almost the same as France. By comparison population of the USA (the third most populous country) is 350 million – exactly 5 times as big, and the population of China and India (the two most populous countries in the world) are roughly 1.4 billion –20 times as big.

But the global distribution of population is not static. If we look at the population by continent today, Asia has over 5 bn people. Africa has 1.6bn, North and South America together about 1 billion, Europe 0.75 bn. But if we go back 200 years, the shares were very different. Asia still had most people but Europe was second, and Africa and the Americas had very few people. The transformation has been the shrinkage of Europe’s global population share, the growth of Asia and the Americas and and, since the 1950s, themassive increase in Africa’s share.

Probably most listeners know the India and China are the two biggest countries in the world, by a very large margin. But maybe its a surprise to discover that USA is third. But then it gets more complex. The next biggest countries are all in the developing world, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil – between 200-300m. But then a big group of developing countries between 100-200m: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mexico. Egypt, Phillipines, DR Congo, Vietnam along with two developed countries: Russia and Japan. The majority of rapidly growing countries are in Africa but at the other end, many developed countries are losing population. All this has major geopolitical implications