Global Outlook 2026: Divergence and Risk-Positive Assets
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Global Outlook 2026: Divergence and Risk-Positive Assets
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About this listen
This weekly research highlight offers a comprehensive global economic outlook for 2026, finding that the overall constructive backdrop supports global risk assets despite various regional challenges. The report contrasts the outlook for the UK economy, which is expected to experience a difficult year marked by political instability, high fiscal risks, and low 1% GDP growth forecast, with the Nordic economies, which show emerging bright spots supported by strong domestic demand and significant tax cuts. Analysis of the Asia-Pacific region points toward a coming "job-lite" expansion due to weakening labor demand and shrinking working-age populations, while the study notes that the international role of the renminbi remains limited outside of trade settlement. Although the US core inflation is anticipated to move close to the Fed’s target by late 2026, tariff-related costs may cause a temporary acceleration early in the year. Ultimately, the firm advises investors to overweight US equities and emerging market local-currency debt, anticipating yield curves to steepen globally.