Markets are rallying. Oil is rising. War is ongoing.

And yet, investors seem to be moving on.

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong Lead Portfolio Manager David Kletz to unpack the biggest question facing markets today. Is this resilience — or complacency?

While headlines focus on conflict in the Middle East, the real story is unfolding beneath the surface. Oil shocks are feeding into inflation, central banks are losing flexibility, and market leadership is beginning to shift in ways that could redefine this cycle.

But history offers a warning. Most geopolitical crises feel like turning points. Very few actually are.

Rob and David break down what matters and what doesn't:

• Why this isn't the 1970s
• How oil shocks really impact markets
• Why global growth may be stronger than it looks
• The risks hiding in valuations and market concentration
• And where investors should be looking for opportunity

Because in markets, the biggest mistakes often come from focusing on what feels urgent — instead of what actually drives returns.

Chapters

00:10 - Introduction to Global Thinking

01:07 - Market Overview: Iran Shock and Oil Prices

02:23 - Discussion with David Klutz: Market Resilience vs. Complacency

03:52 - Impact of Oil Prices on Global Growth

05:19 - Inflation and Interest Rates Outlook

07:43 - Global Market Trends and Canadian Economy

14:01 - Focus on Japan and China

33:56 - Four Strong's Global Investment Perspective

38:44 - Closing Remarks and Book Recommendation

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, rduncan@forstrong.com

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan sits down with Dr. Joe Nelesen from S&P Dow Jones Indices to break down the SPIVA Canada 2025 report and what it reveals about active vs passive investing.

The data is clear. Most active managers underperform their benchmarks — not just in 2025, but over longer time horizons. This raises a critical question for investors and advisors alike. Is it still worth chasing alpha?

Rob and Joe explore:

• Why active managers consistently struggle to beat the market
• The role of fees, market efficiency, and survivorship bias
• Where active investing may still have an edge
• The continued rise of ETFs and index investing
• How AI, tokenization, and evolving market structure could shape the future

Whether you are a portfolio manager, financial advisor, or individual investor, this episode provides a data-driven look at one of the most important debates in investing today.

If you are building portfolios in today's market, understanding the trade-offs between active and passive investing has never been more important.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Global Thinking Podcast

02:31 Understanding the SPIVA Report Card

04:35 Performance of Active Managers in 2025

09:00 Factors Leading to Underperformance

13:11 The Role of Fees and Market Dynamics

17:40 Survivorship Bias in Active Management

19:44 The Future of Active Management

24:34 Active vs. Passive Investment Strategies

28:56 The Impact of Fund Selection

29:21 The Rise of Index Investing

30:43 Passive vs Active Investing Dynamics

32:23 Tokenization and Market Evolution

33:18 Future of Market Hours

35:07 The Future of Active vs Index Investing

37:58 AI's Role in Investment Strategies

41:54 Insights on Indices and Reading Recommendations

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, rduncan@forstrong.com

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast Rob Duncan sits down with Forstrong CEO & CIO, Tyler Mordy, to unpack the market reaction to the escalating conflict involving Iran and why investors may be focusing on the wrong risk.

When geopolitical shocks hit, markets tend to do what they always do: sell first and ask questions later. But history suggests most conflicts don't leave a lasting mark on markets. The real question isn't the headlines, it's whether this turns into something more consequential. The answer, as Tyler explains, comes down to one key transmission channel: oil.

This episode is a crash course in how oil shocks impact the global economy, from inflation and central bank policy to growth and market stability. They also tackle the bigger question: are we facing a 1970s-style energy crisis, or is today's global economy more resilient than investors fear?

From Trump-era "TACO" trade dynamics to the evolution of supply-driven inflation shocks, this conversation cuts through the noise and focuses on what really matters.

Because in moments like this, it's not about reacting to headlines. It's about understanding which risks actually move markets.

Episode Timestamps

00:00 – Opening monologue: Markets, uncertainty, and why this moment feels different

02:15 – Setting the stage: What's happening with Iran and global markets

05:00 – Initial market reaction: Sell first, ask questions later

07:30 – Do geopolitical events actually matter for markets?

10:15 – The real transmission mechanism: Why oil is everything

13:30 – Oil shocks explained: How they impact inflation and growth

17:00 – Are we heading back to a 1970s-style energy crisis?

20:30 – Why today's economy is more resilient to oil shocks

24:00 – Supply shocks vs demand shocks: A new market regime

27:30 – Trump, TACO trades, and policy uncertainty

30:30 – What markets are missing right now

33:30 – Key signals to watch: oil curve, inflation expectations, financial conditions

37:00 – The role of the US dollar in times of stress

39:30 – Portfolio implications: what investors should (and shouldn't) do

42:30 – Why it may be too early to de-risk portfolios

45:00 – Final thoughts: reacting vs staying disciplined

Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/

Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/

Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/

Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/

Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/

Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/

Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes.

For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, rduncan@forstrong.com