Criterion breaks down key macro trends heading into 2026—why industrial is stabilizing, office is stuck in a new normal, and retail is quietly the tightest sector—then closes with a “Worst Deal of the Week” teardown of a low-yield McDonald’s ground lease.

Time Stamps: 0:00 Quick banter + game setup 0:24 Episode intro + why Criterion is doing quarterly investor meetups 1:26 Dallas investor meetup announced (March 26) 1:47 “I Call BS” game begins (money/markets/real estate facts) 3:53 Build vs buy stabilized assets discussion 4:59 Wealth concentration question + savings timing scenario 7:21 NBA vs billionaire odds question + game results 8:10 Macro trends heading into 2026 overview (stabilizing markets, rates) 9:06 Industrial outlook: vacancy stabilization, build-to-suit shift, data centers 11:26 Office outlook: vacancy ceiling, conversions, refinancing wall, flight to quality 13:31 Retail outlook: lowest vacancy, limited new supply, rent growth, lease strategy 15:28 New segment: “Worst deal we saw this week” 15:53 McDonald’s ground lease teardown (3.5 cap, no depreciation, weak growth) 18:15 Wrap-up + next episode teaser

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Criterion kicks off 2026 with a cap-rate guessing game, deal pipeline updates, and a practical breakdown of major real estate tax advantages—bonus depreciation, Opportunity Zones, QBI, Section 179, and SALT deductions—so investors can keep more of what they earn.

Time Stamps: 0:00 - Introduction 0:23 Welcome back + first show of 2026 1:11 Q1 Deal Pipeline (Palm Beach/West Palm/Houston/Reno) + Non-Accredited Houston 3:33 Year-End Investor Updates (Financials + Distributions) 3:45 Game On: “Put a Cap on It” + Deal #1 Orlando Retail (New Build) 6:15 Deal #2 Springfield, IL Retail (Credit Tenants + Lease Terms) 8:29 Deal #3 Orangeburg, SC Center (Low Rents + Sketchy Demos) 10:02 Cap Rate Reveals + Round 1 Winner 11:55 Would We Buy the 9.3 Cap? Quick Underwriting Reality Check 12:22 2026 Tax Changes That Matter for CRE Investors (Overview) 13:02 Bonus Depreciation + Opportunity Zones + QBI + Section 179 (Key Takeaways) 20:53 Capital Gains/Recapture + SALT Increase + Biggest Tax Lesson 23:46 Overrated vs Underrated: Crowdfunding, Local Banks + Rapid-Fire Fun 27:53 Outro + Next Episode

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Criterion breaks down year-end acquisition numbers, highlights stock-market bubble indicators, and lays out a practical commercial real estate strategy to survive a potential 2026–2027 correction.

Time Stamps: 0:00 – Introduction 1:30 – Year-end update: $72M acquired + $21M equity raised 2:35 – Growth story: 2019 first deal to “20X” scale + investor base expansion 4:27 – Why talk about a potential 2026–2027 market correction 6:12 – Index run-up: S&P / Dow / NASDAQ context and “bubble” risk framing 8:47 – Valuation red flags: S&P PE ratios vs. 1929 / 2001 comps 9:47 – Buffett Indicator explained (market cap vs. GDP) 10:55 – “Magnificent 7” concentration + elevated PE multiples 12:40 – Awareness over prediction: risk management mindset 13:08 – Macro pressure: national debt + interest cost discussion 15:19 – If stocks crash: what happens to real estate values + inflation response 16:39 – CRE in a downturn: tenant risk, vacancy, and cash reserves 17:25 – Rates drop = refinance opportunity; CRE vs. stocks volatility 18:42 – Why higher-cap buys help: breathing room on cash flow 19:14 – Crash playbook: buy discounted assets, avoid forced sales, keep operating 19:47 – “Don’t wait for perfect”: buy through every season

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