IBM Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis
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IBM Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis
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ALEX: Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown. I'm Alex.
JORDAN: And I'm Jordan. Today we're diving into IBM's Q4 2025 earnings, and wow - this might be the strongest quarter we've seen from Big Blue in over a decade.
ALEX: Before we get started, I need to mention that this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
JORDAN: Absolutely. Now Alex, let's talk numbers because IBM just delivered some pretty impressive results. What caught your eye first?
ALEX: The headline number is huge - 9% revenue growth in Q4, which is their highest in over three years. But what's really striking is the full-year performance. They hit 6% revenue growth for 2025, which might not sound earth-shattering, but for IBM, this represents their best year in ages.
JORDAN: And the cash generation story is even better. They generated $14.7 billion in free cash flow - that's their highest level in over a decade and represents their best free cash flow margin in their 114-year history. That's not a typo, folks - 114 years.
ALEX: Let's break down what's driving this transformation. CEO Arvind Krishna has been repositioning IBM as a software-led company, and it's really paying off. Software now represents 45% of their business, up from just 25% back in 2018.
JORDAN: The software segment is where the magic is happening. It grew 11% in Q4 and 9% for the full year - which Krishna called their highest annual software growth rate in history. Three of their four software sub-segments hit double-digit growth.
ALEX: What's particularly interesting is their AI strategy. Their cumulative Gen AI book of business now stands at over $12.5 billion. That's split between more than $2 billion in software and over $10.5 billion in consulting.
JORDAN: But here's the kicker - this is the last quarter they're going to report that Gen AI metric separately. CFO Jim Kavanaugh said AI is now so embedded across their entire business that a standalone metric doesn't capture the full value anymore.
ALEX: That's actually a smart move. It shows they're not treating AI as a separate product line but as a foundational technology that enhances everything they do. Speaking of which, their mainframe business had an absolute monster year.
JORDAN: The Z17 mainframe launch has been phenomenal. Infrastructure revenue grew 17% in Q4, with IBM Z up 61% year-over-year. Krishna mentioned this represents the highest annual revenue for their mainframe business in about twenty years.
ALEX: What's fascinating about the mainframe story is how they're positioning it for the AI era. The Z17 can process 50% more AI inferencing operations per day than the previous generation, and it brings real-time AI capabilities directly into the mainframe environment.
JORDAN: That's a key differentiator. Instead of having to send data off-platform for AI processing - which takes seconds - they can do it inline in milliseconds. For financial institutions and other mission-critical applications, that speed difference is game-changing.
ALEX: Let's talk acquisitions because that's been a big part of their strategy. They're in the process of acquiring Confluent, which should close by mid-2026. Kavanaugh expects about $600 million in dilution from that deal initially.
JORDAN: But they're confident it'll be accretive to adjusted EBITDA within the first full year. This follows their successful HashiCorp acquisition, which delivered record bookings and is already ahead of accretion expectations.
ALEX: The productivity story is remarkable too. They originally set a goal to achieve $2 billion in productivity savings by the end of 2024. They're now at $4.5 billion in annual run-rate savings and expect to hit $5.5 billion by the end of 2026.
JORDAN: That productiv
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