Oil, Iran, and the $3–$4 Risk Premium Markets Can’t Ignore
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Oil, Iran, and the $3–$4 Risk Premium Markets Can’t Ignore
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About this listen
Oil prices are moving — but not because barrels have disappeared.
In this episode of Error 404: Searching for Logic, we break down how unrest in Iran is injecting a geopolitical risk premium into oil markets, why the Strait of Hormuz remains the ultimate chokepoint, and what really matters for prices next.
We unpack:
Why oil can rise without a physical supply disruption
How a $3–$4 risk premium gets priced in
The role of shipping, sanctions, and insurance costs
Why inventories and soft fundamentals are still pulling the other way
What signals turn fear into real price moves — and which headlines don’t
Volatility isn’t direction. And in energy markets, probability × impact is everything.
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