Artificial intelligence promises massive productivity gains, but not everyone can immediately jump in to reap its benefits. While some firms and countries race ahead with new tools, others deliberately stick with older technologies, a choice may be entirely rational.

In this episode of the Fuqua Insights podcast, Professor John Coleman of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business joins host Sarah Kern to discuss how economies and businesses choose technologies based on the skills of their workforce. Drawing on his paper The World Technology Frontier, co-authored with Francesco Caselli of the London School of Economics, Coleman explores why countries with access to the same global technologies nonetheless adopt very different production methods and experience sharply different income levels.

Coleman’s central finding is that technology adoption is often an optimal choice, not a failure. Coleman distinguishes between skilled and unskilled labor, economic terms based primarily on formal education levels rather than the actual difficulty or value of work. In this framework, "skilled" workers have training that allows them to adapt to and leverage new technologies, while "unskilled" refers to workers with less formal education who may be highly capable but less equipped to use tools like AI.

Advanced economies tend to develop and use technologies that favor skilled labor, while less-developed economies rely on older, less skill-intensive tools because those technologies better match their labor force. As Coleman explains, a poorer country may “optimally choose to adopt what seems to an advanced economy to be a backward technology”, because using more advanced tools without the right skills can actually reduce productivity.

While technologies developed a long time ago are most suitable for labor that is mostly unskilled, newer technologies are designed for highly educated workers, Coleman notes. This framework applies directly to AI: “AI was developed by advanced economies that have the skilled labor that would benefit most from AI,” he says. Without that skill base, adopting AI may not pay off.

Business leaders should remember to align innovations with workforce capabilities. “Adopting AI without a well-developed plan to integrate it into your workforce would likely be a disaster,” Coleman warns. Globally, AI may widen gaps in the short run, but Coleman emphasizes that technology is not a zero-sum game. Over time, moving up the technology frontier can create opportunities for growth across economies.

Duke Fuqua Insights features digestible conversations with our faculty about the most impactful research from their careers, including studies they teach in Fuqua classes. New episodes every other week in season.

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