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Ignore the Bubble, Chase Alpha

Ignore the Bubble, Chase Alpha

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Amias Gerety, Partner at QED Investors, brings an unconventional perspective to venture capital shaped by his eight years at the US Treasury Department during the financial crisis. A mechanical thinker, Amias applies an essentialist approach to understanding how businesses work. He explains why QED looks for companies that triple every six months at Series A, how inverted AI creates new opportunities in financial services, and why the best advice for founders remains timeless: build something people want and charge more than it costs to make. With insights on the AI bubble, the application layer renaissance, and why saying no 99 times out of 100 is the real job of a VC, Amias offers a masterclass in disciplined, thesis-driven investing.

In this episode, you'll learn:

[01:24] Amias's unique path from politics and Treasury to venture capital

[05:13] The lever theory: how government and VC create systemic change

[07:12] Why mechanical thinking and first principles matter in VC

[14:48] QED's investment sweet spot: Series A and series B with undeniable momentum

[19:25] What product-market fit really means and how to recognize it

[22:14] Inverted AI: Why the world needs financial services for the AI economy

[26:43] The AI bubble paradox: overvalued companies, transformative technology

[32:57] Why early-stage founders should ignore the macro and focus on customers

[34:31] The brutal math of venture

The nonprofit organization Amias is passionate about: Easterseals

About Amias Gerety

Amias Gerety is a Partner at QED Investors, where he focuses on FinTech and InsurTech investments. Before joining QED in 2017, Amias spent eight years at the US Treasury Department from the first day of the Obama administration through its final day. During his tenure, he helped write the Dodd-Frank Act and built the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the organization responsible for monitoring systemic risk in the US financial system. His government experience during the financial crisis gives him a unique perspective on market dynamics and regulatory frameworks. A mechanical thinker who approaches investments with an essentialist mindset, Amias has invested in companies like Kin Insurance, Prosper, and Tint. He previously worked as a management consultant and with Save the Children in East Africa.

About QED Investors

QED Investors is one of the most successful venture capital firms focused on FinTech investments globally. As a multi-stage, global firm with a $650 million early-stage fund and $300 million growth fund, QED specializes in Series A and B investments in companies demonstrating exceptional momentum and product-market fit. The firm requires portfolio companies to show dramatic growth—expecting tripling in six months for Series A and tripling in a year for Series B investments. QED's partners bring deep domain expertise from building and scaling financial services companies, with a particular focus on companies that are reshaping financial services through technology. The firm is known for its rigorous, thesis-driven approach to investing and its high conviction in backing founders who have found authentic product-market fit in large, expanding markets.

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