In this wide-ranging and intellectually rich conversation, host Pierre Daillie sits down with veteran options trader, market maker, and probabilistic thinker Kris Abdelmessih for a deep exploration of how markets really work beneath the surface—and how investors can think more clearly in a world dominated by uncertainty, noise, and emotion. Drawing on more than two decades of experience spanning Susquehanna International Group, proprietary commodity trading, and portfolio management at Parallax, Abdelmessih explains why options markets reveal truths that stock prices alone cannot, how poker shaped his understanding of risk and decision-making, and why probabilistic thinking—not prediction—separates professionals from amateurs. The discussion moves seamlessly from trading pits and market structure to behavioral bias, prediction markets, volatility, and education, culminating in a thoughtful explanation of Moontower, Abdelmessih’s platform designed to help investors understand whether options are cheap, expensive, or inappropriate for a given thesis. This episode is less about “what to buy” and more about how to think—about risk, information, and the difference between being right and making money.

Stock prices are two-dimensional snapshots. Options markets, by contrast, embed the market’s full probability distribution—revealing not just where investors think prices may go, but how violently and under what conditions. This makes options markets a powerful lens for understanding hidden risks and asymmetric outcomes.

2️⃣ Good Decisions Can Still Lose—And That’s the Point

Drawing parallels between poker and trading, Abdelmessih emphasizes that outcomes are noisy, even when decisions are sound. Professionals focus on expected value, risk sizing, and repeatability, not short-term wins or losses. This mindset is critical for surviving low-signal environments like financial markets.

Markets aggregate information better than opinions. From CEO resignations to geopolitical outcomes, prices often reveal consensus faster—and more accurately—than pundits. Understanding volatility, probability, and conditional outcomes will become increasingly important as prediction markets and derivatives continue to evolve. ⏱️ Timestamped Chapters

01:15 – Kris Abdelmessih’s career path: SIG, commodities, Parallax

05:10 – From Cornell to trading floors: curiosity as a career catalyst

24:30 – Poker, probability, and Bayesian thinking at Susquehanna

29:20 – Why being “right” doesn’t matter in markets

37:00 – Market making vs. portfolio management: different risk shapes

43:00 – Trading oil, gas, and the chaos of pit trading

48:00 – Why specialization is both powerful and dangerous

58:30 – What Moontower is—and why most investors misuse options

1:02:00 – How options reveal hidden distributions in stock prices

1:08:00 – Prediction markets, truth, and market-based consensus

More on Kris Abdelmessih

Kris Abdelmessih on Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/kristopher-abdelmessih-63b1b1/

Moontower.ai - https://www.moontower.ai/

Moontower Substack - https://moontower.substack.com/

#OptionsTrading#MarketStructure#ProbabilisticThinking#Volatility#RiskManagement#BehavioralFinance#PredictionMarkets#InvestingMindset#FinancialEducation#InsightIsCapital

In this episode of Insight Is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with David Stonehouse, Interim CIO and Head of North American Specialty Investments at AGF Investments, for a wide-ranging but grounded discussion on what lies ahead for investors as the cycle matures.

Stonehouse frames 2026 as a constructive but narrower environment—one supported by global monetary easing, rising fiscal stimulus, and resilient earnings growth, yet constrained by elevated valuations, softer labor markets, and geopolitical uncertainty. The conversation carefully unpacks how tariffs have shifted from an economic “earthquake” to a lingering aftershock, why inflation fears may be overstated near-term, and how investors can think about regional diversification beyond a heavily concentrated U.S. market.

Rather than offering bold predictions, the discussion emphasizes flexibility, balance, and readiness—highlighting why equal-weight equity exposure, selective credit, emerging markets, and a strategic cash buffer may matter more than ever as uncertainty rises but opportunity persists.

🔑 3 Key Takeaways

• 2026 looks constructive—but with less room for error. Global easing cycles, fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and healthy earnings support risk assets, but elevated valuations and optimistic sentiment increase vulnerability to shocks.

• Tariffs are no longer a shock, but still a drag. The biggest tariff surprise is behind us; clarity—not resolution—matters most now, allowing businesses and consumers to adapt even as trade frictions persist.

• Diversification and optionality matter more than conviction. With U.S. equities richly valued after a long run, Stonehouse sees relative opportunity in emerging markets, Japan, and potentially Canada—while cash provides flexibility if volatility returns.

⏱️ Timestamped Chapters

• 00:00 – Markets heading into 2026: momentum with less margin for error

• 02:00 – David Stonehouse’s career path and investment philosophy

• 03:00 – The six macro tailwinds shaping 2026

• 08:00 – Tariffs: from economic earthquake to manageable aftershocks

• 12:00 – Labor markets, immigration, AI, and the “no-hire, no-fire” economy

• 17:00 – Fiscal stimulus, affordability pressures, and the K-shaped economy

• 22:00 – Central banks, bond markets, and the myth of ‘new QE’

• 31:00 – Inflation, disinflation, and long-term yield risks

• 38:00 – Why equities can still rise—but valuations matter

• 43:00 – Regional opportunities: U.S., Canada, emerging markets, Japan

• 52:00 – Portfolio positioning: equities, fixed income, credit, and cash

• 55:00 – Final thoughts on risk, resilience, and flexibility

#InsightIsCapital #MarketOutlook2026 #MacroInvesting #PortfolioStrategy #AGFInvestments #DavidStonehouse #CentralBanks #TariffsAndTrade #EquityMarkets #FixedIncome #EmergingMarkets #AdvisorInsights

Copyright © AdvisorAnalyst