Happy New Year! In the first episode of 2026, we catch up on what we missed during the holiday break, and dig into the latest market and economic developments in the beginning of the year, including the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, updated projections for GDP and inflation, and the impact of the government shutdown on economic data releases. The conversation covers labor market trends, productivity gains, and a notable geopolitical event in Venezuela, analyzing its implications for oil markets and global economics. We also explore expectations for future Fed actions, the evolving landscape of mortgage policy, and the importance of diversification in investment portfolios, offering listeners a clear and timely perspective on what to watch for in the year ahead.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:41 – Recap of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, projections for 2026, and analysis of GDP growth, inflation trends, and labor market data following the government shutdown.

06:46 – Insights on the Venezuela situation, its effect on oil markets, and broader geopolitical implications for investors.

12:14 – Inflation trends, consumer behavior, and Fed rate cut expectations for 2026

15:56 – Analysis of government intervention in mortgage markets, treasury yields, and implications for fixed income investors.

17:38 – Our thoughts on portfolio management, diversification strategies, predictions for recession odds, earnings, AI trends, and closing thoughts for investors.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: What Will Be the Economic Impact of the Political Events in Venezuela?

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

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In this week's episode, our experts discuss recent market activity, economic data delays due to the recent government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. The Fed’s decision was marked by rare dissent, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and future policy direction, with only one rate cut projected for 2026. We analyze the implications for credit markets, the US dollar, and the evolving role of artificial intelligence in corporate strategy, noting shifts in tech stock performance and the importance of distinguishing winners and losers in the AI space. The conversation also draws parallels to past market bubbles, emphasizing the value of diversification and caution as the year ends. Be sure to review our 2026 Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change to see what key themes we believe will most impact the economy in 2026.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:27 - Recent market activity is discussed, including delays in economic data due to a government shutdown, updates on unemployment claims, and the job openings report.

03:26 - Cindy Honcharenko summarizes the Fed’s decision to lower rates for the third time in 2025, the rare split vote among Committee members, and implications for inflation and the labor market.

08:10 - The panel analyzes the Fed’s outlook, credit spreads, risk appetite, and the importance of understanding why the Fed is cutting rates.

13:29 - Discussion in recent trends in the US dollar, commodity prices, and the impact on corporate America.

15:45 - The panel covers the impact of AI on stock performance, recent news from Oracle and Broadcom, and the evolving tech landscape.

Additional Resources

Read: 2026 Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

Key Questions

Weekly Investment Brief

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On this week’s episode, a busy week of mixed economic signals—initial jobless claims hit a very low 191,000 while ADP reported a -32,000 decline in private payrolls—and a split economy where ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction as Services continue to expand. With a delayed September PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) arriving today, just before next week’s FOMC meeting, markets are leaning toward a 25 bp “risk management” cut as Treasury yields hover in a 4.05–4.15% range and auctions resume. Looking ahead to 2026, the team expects continued momentum without a recession, a need for discernment in AI rather than bubble fears, a potentially more dovish Fed posture amid leadership changes, a strong first half for equities, and a steady emphasis on diversification through debt concerns and midterm-election noise.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:37 - Labor Market & Economy Split: Initial claims ~191,000 and below 225,000 for three weeks; BLS jobs report delayed to Dec 16; ADP shows -32,000 private payrolls—cooling, ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction (multi-year) while Services continue expanding—highlighting a bifurcated economy.

3:47 - Inflation & Fed setup: September PCE is the last read before the FOMC; markets price ~95% odds of a 25 bp cut, with dot‑plot dissents crucial for the 2026 rate path.

07:16 - Rates & Auctions: 10‑year Treasury trading ~4.05–4.15% with dip‑buying; auctions restart next week ($58 billion 3‑yr, $39 billion 10‑yr, $22 billion 30‑yr).

09:47 - 2026 Outlook Highlights: Momentum without recession; AI requires discernment (ecosystems forming, winners vs. losers); possible dovish tilt at the Fed amid leadership changes; equities set up for a strong first half with potential mid‑year inflation‑related volatility; stay diversified through debt/deficit concerns and midterm‑election uncertainty.

Additional Resources

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

Key Questions

Weekly Investment Brief

Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Follow us on LinkedIn