The Energy Floor Has Moved and its making higher highs and higher lows. In stock-land, thats a bullish development. Here's the energy quicktake. The investment world has spent the last decade debating peak oil demand. That debate is temporarily irrelevant. More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace, with more than 14 million barrels per day now shut in — an unprecedented supply shock. To put that number in context: the shortfall represents roughly 20% of global oil supply. Estimates vary but the International Energy Agency estimates the Rough cumulative oil supply lost over the last few months is between 850 million to well over 1 billion barrels. To put that into context, during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, losses were roughly 4–5 million barrels per day. In the 1979 Iranian Revolution, roughly 5–6 million came offline, and in the 1990 Golf War, it was roughly 4 million bpd. So the current Hormuz disruption is being described by multiple analysts as potentially the largest oil supply disruption in modern history, both in daily volume and cumulative barrels affected. Oxy and LNG are the first adds we like here on this dip.
Note: This is NOT financial advice. This is for educational and informational purposes only. Please do your own research. The Middle East situation can change in both directions at any time and the algos and fast money will swing these stocks around violently and without warning.

Heico stock has lagged, a very rare thing. That was the opportunity. Here's a quick summary of the wow quarter and the guidance. The business is on solid footing and the stock is wildly under-owned. There's alot more to like than just crowded AI stocks. HEI is one. This is NOT financial advice, this is for educational and informational purposes only. Please do your own research.

The powerful forward story is the pipeline built to answer the only real bear concern—concentration. The first answer is Foundayo, the newly approved oral GLP-1 pill, the only one dosable anytime without food or water. A pill is a step-change in scalability: no cold chain, no injection, far cheaper to manufacture, and the key to unlocking hundreds of millions of patients globally and in primary care—early uptake shows ~80% of scripts going to new-to-class patients. The second is retatrutide, a triple hormone agonist that delivered ~28% weight loss over 18 months in Phase 3, approaching surgical outcomes. Behind them sits a 42-program Phase 3 engine, spanning expanding indications (sleep apnea, heart failure, MASH-a dangerous form of fatty liver disease where fat builds up in the liver and eventually causes inflammation and liver damage.) And then theres, Alzheimer’s, oncology, and immunology. There's So much in Lilly's pipeline to like.

What makes Shopify special begins with a cultural transformation that is widely underappreciated. After its 2022 reset, Shopify sold its capital-intensive logistics arm, narrowed focus to its core platform, and embraced radical operating discipline—CEO Tobi Lütke’s mandate that teams prove a job cannot be done with AI before requesting new headcount. The result is three consecutive years of flat-to-declining headcount while revenue grew ~30%+ annually, with operating expenses falling to 37% of revenue. This is a company spending less on people while shipping faster, and it is the engine behind the swing from cash-burning growth to ~$2 billion of annual free cash flow and a new $2 billion buyback.

What makes AeroVironment special is the breadth it assembled at exactly the right moment. Its Switchblade family—the 300, for personnel and light targets, the 600, as a man-portable “tank killer”—is among the only loitering-munition lines with real combat history and an active U.S. Army production pipeline, including a recent ~$186 million order for next-generation Block variants. This is the recurring “razor-and-blade” model defense has long lacked: AI-guided munitions consumed in volume and reordered continuously. A-V also fields the workhorse Puma and JUMP-20 drones with deep installed bases across allied militaries. The company became globally important because of Switchblade loitering munitions. These are essentially: drone + missile hybrids. They fly, scout, identify targets, then strike directly. This changed modern warfare because they are much cheaper than traditional missiles, highly mobile, portable, and extremely effective. Ukraine made Switchblade famous globally.

The transformational move was the May 2025 acquisition of BlueHalo, which extended A-V from a small-drone maker into a multi-domain autonomy platform spanning directed energy, space communications, cyber, and electronic warfare. Few competitors can offer the full kill chain—detect, track, and defeat—across both drones and counter-drones from a single vendor.

In hypersonics—arguably the single most urgent gap in U.S. deterrence—Kratos is a prime contractor on the Pentagon’s MACH-TB 2.0 flight-test program and is expanding ground-test capacity. Whoever owns the testing infrastructure for an entire weapons class owns a recurring, capacity-constrained toll road, and Kratos is building exactly that. Add a fast-growing space and satellite business (a 3-to-1 book-to-bill quarter and a $446.8 million Space Systems Command award), microwave electronics, and directed energy, and the company becomes a diversified arsenal of next-generation capability rather than a single-product bet.

The financial trajectory confirms the thesis is converting. First-quarter 2026 revenue grew 22.6% to $371 million; backlog hit a record $2.0 billion on a 1.6-to-1 book-to-bill; and the opportunity pipeline swelled to roughly $14 billion. The growth ahead is a conversion story: turning that pipeline into full-rate production. As generational programs move from development to volume, fixed-cost absorption should lift today’s thin ~2% net margins meaningfully—on 20%+ revenue growth, even modest margin expansion compounds into outsized earnings power.

In the spirit of being a contrarian, we cant ignore a huge, important industry like homebuilding without looking at some tremendous value opportunities. Yes rates are important and home affordability dynamics need to improve but when we see dreadful sentiment, high quality brands on sale, builders first source is down 65% from the cycle highs, and a differentiated, highly valuable business model that’s also an interesting potential acquisition for a bigger company, we get excited and we have patience because the margin of safety appears to be in our favor.

ServiceNow's position for the next decade should be even more important than its importance over the last decade. The stock is down, insiders are buying, stock based comp is getting contained and the ai engine is getting warmed up. Currently, Revenue is growing at 20-plus percent annually with best-in-class net retention rates — meaning existing customers spend more each year without ServiceNow adding a single new customer. By 2030, ServiceNow has guided to being a 30-plus-billion-dollar revenue company with operating margins above 30 percent as AI agents become the standard method of enterprise workflow execution. That’s strong earnings, free cash flow and revenue growth, and none of that possibility is priced in the stock today. The company that owns the workflow layer of the enterprise owns the platform on which AI agents will operate for a generation. ServiceNow owns that layer.

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