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Liquid Assets: A Beverage Industry Podcast

Liquid Assets: A Beverage Industry Podcast

Written by: Rabobank
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Rabobank's global beverage team offers insights, analysis, and a bit of entertainment for your morning commute. Liquid Assets will help you tackle the latest trends, introduce you to industry leaders, and prepare you for what's next in the beverage world. Please read our disclaimer here: https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/footer/disclaimer.htmlAll rights reserved Economics Politics & Government
Episodes
  • Beer boys solve a big mystery: Why is the on-premise so resilient?

    Beer boys solve a big mystery: Why is the on-premise so resilient?
    Jun 25 2026
    For more than a year, alcohol sales in the on-premise (restaurants, bars, stadiums, and hotels) have outperformed sales in the off-premise (grocery, convenience, and liquor stores). On the surface, this trend contradicts many of our explanations for the industry's struggles. If people are broke, why are they spending money in the channel where alcohol costs the most? If people are spending more time alone, why are they drinking in venues driven by socialization? A mystery this big requires more intellectual firepower than RaboResearch alone can provide. So we invited two PhDs and an economist on the show to help us figure it out. Our guests: Bart Watson, President & CEO, Brewers AssociationAndrew Heritage, Chief Economist, Beer InstituteLester Jones, Chief Economist, National Beer Wholesalers Association Relevant time stamps: Why are on-premise sales outperforming off-premise sales? Round 1: 7:42 – The K-shaped economy is widening the gap between on-premise and off-premise sales: Middle/lower-income consumers feel squeezed and cut back more during at-home (off-premise) occasions, while protecting meaningful social occasions (on-premise). Higher-income consumers continue spending, widening the gap.16:04 – Rising wealth is leading to an overall increase in on-premise spending: The US is getting richer over time; historically that drives more spending "away from home." As incomes rise, consumers shift toward experiences like bars/restaurants.24:01 – Post-Covid socialization is normalizing: People want to reconnect after Covid. Younger consumers especially over-index in out-of-home alcohol spend, supporting on-premise demand through social experiences.32:54 – Health and wellness trends are driving people to cut back on banal, at-home occasions: Consumers drink less overall, especially at home, but keep social drinking occasions. Alcohol becomes more "occasion-based," benefiting on-premise while hurting off-premise volumes.42:02 – Inflation in the on-premise is massively outpacing off-premise: On-premise prices are rising faster than off-premise. Even if behavior doesn't change much, higher pricing inflates on-premise performance in dollar terms. Round 2: 45:18 – Travel and experiences are rebounding: Increased travel drives on-premise consumption (restaurants, bars, concessions). Social and vacation contexts strengthen on-premise relative to at-home drinking.47:24 – The on-premise has more innovation, driving increases in productivity: Restaurants and bars have innovated (tech, formats, efficiency) post-Covid, improving service and experience. Better venues lead to stronger performance versus relatively static off-premise retail.52:10 – There are more women in the workforce: More women in the workforce = more income + stronger social consumption patterns. Women may drink less, but have more money to spend per serving, suggesting they may be a driver of on-premise strength.57:48 – Staying at home is more stimulating than it used to be: Consumers don't have to drink because they're bored. Competing activities (cannabis, online gaming, etc.) replace at-home drinking occasions – especially for younger males – more than on-premise drinking occasions.1:03:02 – Several final factors may also be contributing to the on-premise performance gap: With the last pick of the draft, Bourcard mops up some of the final potential factors behind the on-premise performance gap, including young adults living with their parents, the decline of underage drinking, and GLP-1 drugs reducing the desire for casual drinking while leaving social occasions intact. Have a question, qualm, or story to tell? Reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.
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    1 hr and 20 mins
  • How do control states work?

    How do control states work?
    Jun 10 2026

    Around 25% of US spirits sales move through control states, but how do they work? How are they different from open states, and what can suppliers do to improve their performance in these markets? In this episode we speak to leadership at the National Alcohol Beverage Control Association (NABCA) about how government-run liquor businesses operate and what brands can do to better position themselves for success.

    Our guests:

    • Neal Insley, President & CEO, NABCA
    • Buddy Buckner, General Counsel, NABCA

    Have a question, qualm, or story to tell? Reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com

    Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up

    Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

    Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.
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    1 hr and 3 mins
  • The economic outlook amid an energy crisis three times larger than the shock from Russia's invasion of Ukraine

    The economic outlook amid an energy crisis three times larger than the shock from Russia's invasion of Ukraine
    May 27 2026

    US inflation in April reached its highest level in three years, driven in part by the war in Iran. The volume of oil flows affected by the conflict is three times larger than the disruption caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, yet many firms – especially in the US – don't seem too concerned. According to our analysts, they should be.

    Join us for an enlightening, if not light-hearted, discussion about the impact of this crisis and how it affects the economic future for the US, Europe, and the global economy.

    Our guests:

    • Jane Foley, Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy, RaboResearch
    • Christian Lawrence, Head of Americas & Energy Market Strategy, RaboResearch
    • Joe DeLaura, Senior Energy Strategist, RaboResearch

    Relevant time stamps:

    • 2:11 – The US-Israel campaign against Iran and the immediate energy market shock.
    • 6:52 – Why markets could be underestimating the length and impact of the crisis.
    • 14:02 – The macroeconomic, inflationary, and consumer impacts of higher energy prices.
    • 27:04 – Implications of the Iran war for Fed policy and interest rates.
    • 31:21 – How the conflict is shifting our perspectives on globalization and geopolitics.
    • 44:43 – Broader macroeconomic themes: taxes, tariffs, European growth, and the economic growth outlook for the rest of the year.

    Have a question, qualm, or story to tell? Reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com

    Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up

    Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

    Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.
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    1 hr and 1 min
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