Credit union lending faces pivotal changes in 2026 as interest rates, inflation, and regulatory shifts reshape the landscape. In this episode of Credit Union Conversations, host Mark Ritter and MBFS COO Jeff Lyons make bold predictions about fed rate movements, treasury rates, and commercial lending growth. They discuss how rising delinquency rates may affect the industry and explore the NCUA's anticipated regulatory priorities, including oversight of AI and automation. From mortgage rates to commercial real estate refinancing opportunities, this Quick Hits episode delivers actionable insights for credit union leaders navigating an uncertain economic environment in the year ahead.

What You Will Learn In This Episode:

✅ How fed rate reductions and treasury rates will influence credit union loan pricing strategies and member borrowing costs throughout 2026

✅ Why commercial lending growth may slow, while commercial real estate refinancing opportunities emerge from distressed properties

✅ What regulatory priorities the NCUA will focus on, including delinquency management, loan loss reserves, stablecoins, and AI and automation policies

✅ How the housing market, unemployment rate, and inflation rate interconnect to shape the overall economic outlook for credit unions

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 2026 predictions episode discussing credit union industry forecasts and Fed rate and interest rates predictions, with expectations of rates dropping to 3-3.25%

01:42 Treasury rates and mortgage rates outlook, analyzing the impact on credit union lending and the housing market

03:10 Inflation rate forecast at 2.5% with discussion of tariffs and unemployment rate effects on economic stability

04:25 Commercial lending growth predictions and commercial real estate refinancing opportunities amid rising delinquency trends

06:29 Discussion of the NCUA board, the rising delinquency numbers, and the abuse of AI

10:15 Let’s talk football

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

✅ Federal Reserve leadership changes will drive fed rate policy toward 3% by year-end, creating refinancing opportunities for loans originated in 2024 at higher rates

✅ Rising delinquency rates will trigger stricter NCUA oversight on loan loss reserves and accounting practices, while AI and automation regulation emerges as a new compliance focus area

✅ Commercial real estate distress will create a "greater fool" refinancing market where credit unions can acquire loans at significant discounts after original lenders absorb losses

ABOUT THE GUEST:

Jeff Lyons - LinkedIn

RESOURCES MENTIONED:

Mark Ritter - Website

Mark Ritter - LinkedIn

SEO KEYWORDS:

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