The Iran ceasefire cracked this week, oil spiked back up, and that one shift rippled straight through to your rate quote. In this episode, Jeb and Josh break down what's really driving the move (hint: it's not just the Fed), walk through fresh inventory numbers nationally and here in Orange County, and answer live questions on ARMs, refinancing, non-citizen mortgages, and what it would actually take for rates to drop below 5%.

0:00 Mortgage rates hit an 11-month high

0:22 Why rates reversed: the Iran ceasefire cracks and oil spikes

4:38 Inventory update: national numbers, Orange County, and which markets are rising vs. falling

11:53 Oil shock and the Fed's growing balance sheet: what's really fueling inflation

16:24 This week's data: jobs, inflation nowcasts, and Fed rate cut odds

18:16 Today's actual rates: 6.77%, plus the new AI tool on our site

21:30 Q&A: mortgages for non-citizens and what a war's end could do to rates

27:44 ARM loans: when they make sense, and when they don't

34:36 Refinancing to fixed vs. ARM, and the case for renting while you save

42:23 Debunking the "housing crash" chatter, market by market

46:50 Bond market 101: why yields drive your mortgage rate

51:47 What Realtor commissions and closing costs actually look like

58:07 What it would take for rates to drop below 5%

1:00:37 Wrap up: get your questions answered and next steps

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