Another week, another US tariff regime.

As expected, the US Supreme Court has ruled that the emergency tariff regime operated by President Donald Trump since April 2025 is unconstitutional. Just as expected was Trump's immediate swapping of his emergency powers for alternative executive authorisation. With this, introduced a global 10% tariff and promised to raise this soon to 15%.

Where does this leave the tariff-relief deals he struck during 2025? At their weekly meeting, Medley Advisors' analysts discussed this latest twist, what it means for Europe and the USMCA and how markets were more interested in Matt Schumer's X-hosted essay on AI.

In this edited version of the meeting, Michael Redmond was the host and was followed (in order) by Brian Jackson, Pepijn Bergsen, Tim Jones, Fernando Posadas and Dan Schwartz.

"No plan survives contact with the enemy," said Brian Jackson. "I think this is very descriptive of a lot of the best-laid plans of, let's say, the technocrats or bureaucrats in the Trump administration because Trump sometimes wants to be a lot more flexible than what a lawyer tells him".

With his job-approval rate hitting new lows, US president Donald Trump is pulling out every stop to avoid defeat in Congressional midterm elections in November.

After six weeks that included military intervention in Venezuela and the threat of tariff hikes on European countries unless they agreed to the forced sale of Greenland, investors are asking what could happen next. Will Trump order an attack on Iran, walk away from the UMCA, step up pressure on the Federal Reserve, or act on his national security strategy for regime change in Europe?

To discuss what lies ahead between now and the midterms, Medley Advisors brought together Michael Redmond ("Fed watcher"), Dan Schwartz (EA Head of Macro Markets) and Daniel Sternoff (EA Head of Executive Briefing).

"Do we see more Greenlands and Venezuelas and so forth?" says Sternoff. "It's important to point out that Trump's main focus is of course, domestic, not international, even though he's hyperactive internationally ... One of the biggest motivations of American unhappiness is affordability and cost of living concerns and so Trump is now starting to throw populist spaghetti against the wall in a wave of initiatives ... It says a lot about where his head is".

The speakers, in order, are Tim Jones, Daniel Sternoff, Michael Redmond, Fernando Posadas, and Dan Schwartz.

The morning after US president Donald Trump reversed gears in Davos and (temporarily) dropped the US claim to Greenland, Medley Advisors held their weekly meeting to discuss policymaking and markets.

"For me, the surprise was just how little markets actually reacted to this," said Dan Schwarz, the head of macro markets. "The TACO thesis is firmly embedded in markets at this point". The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had been coasting at 15 before Trump combined a Greenland acquisition with punitive tariffs on eight European countries and jumped to 20 - "a level you typically see in stressed markets, not even distressed markets," he added. "In terms of intensity and on a scale of one to five, if the tariff incident was a five ... this is like a two, maybe a three".

The speakers, in order, are Tim Jones, Brian Jackson, Pepijn Bergsen, Dan Schwartz and Mario Lima.