• Kyle Tetting
• Dave Sandstrom
• John Sandstrom
• Engineered by Jason Scuglik

• Nasdaq – 26344, up 119 points or 0.5%
• S&P 500 – 7473, up 65 points or 0.9%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 50580, up 1054 points or 2.1%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.56%, down 0.04 point

As earnings season nears its completion, markets will be set adrift again.

The rising bond yields leave investors asking questions, but there are some benefits to higher interest rates.

The ability to launch an ETF is not terribly costly now, and the record number of ETFs created in 2025 is creating concerns in the marketplace.

And more! Listen below or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

• Adam Baley
• Kendall Bauer
• Steve Giles
• Engineered by Jason Scuglik

• Nasdaq – 26225, down 22 points or 0.1%
• S&P 500 – 7409, up 10 points or 0.1%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49526, down 83 points or 0.2%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.60%, up 0.23 point

With an abundance of economic data this week we have a lot to cover. Here’s some of the key numbers:

-Consumer prices rose 3.8% year over year. Even stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core inflation rose 2.8%, which is well above our comfort zone.

-Producer prices soared 6% year over year, driven by surging oil costs. Soaring producer prices renew inflation worries as businesses are likely to pass those higher costs on to consumers in the coming months.

-Retail sales rose .5% last month, though largely driven by higher gasoline prices. However, online shopping by consumers showed resilience.

-industrial production and Business Inventories rose in April, both showing stability in consumer demand.

• Kyle Tetting
• Kendall Bauer
• Engineered by Jason Scuglik

• Nasdaq – 26247, up 1084 points or 4.3%
• S&P 500 – 7399, up 153 points or 2.1%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49609, down 19 points or 0.0%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.36%, down 0.01 point

Investors remain focused on earnings and interest rates, with a marked shift in stock prices since the end of March reflecting increasing optimism about stocks more broadly. The S&P is experiencing one of its best earnings seasons in 20 years, with growth in the first quarter looking to exceed 28%.

New investment tools in the Exchange Traded Fund space continue to emerge chasing a variety of investment themes, but challenges remain as investment expense and trend-chasing obscure what’s right with what’s possible.

On the economic front, relative stability in the labor market belies broader concerns about the war and rising prices. The reminder remains: cautious balance remains a far more prudent path than trying to predict bursting bubbles.

• Kyle Tetting
• Steve Giles
• Mike Hoelzl
• Engineered by Jason Scuglik

• Nasdaq – 25119, up 282 points or 1.1%
• S&P 500 – 7232, up 67 points or 0.9%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49513, up 283 points or 0.6%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.38%, up 0.07 point

In this week’s episode, we break down a pivotal moment for the Federal Reserve and what it means for markets going forward. With Jay Powell presiding over his final meeting as Fed Chair—while signaling he’ll remain on the Board amid an ongoing DOJ probe—we unpack the historical significance of the moment and the policy decisions that came with it. Rates held steady at 3.5%–3.75%, offering investors a sense of stability, but rising disagreement within the Fed reveals a more complicated picture beneath the surface.

Earnings season, meanwhile, is delivering both excitement and volatility. Standout performances from major names saw double-digit jumps following their reports. With trading volumes surging and sharp market reactions becoming the norm, investors are navigating a fast-moving landscape.

We also tackle the growing conversation about U.S. debt, which has now surpassed 100% of GDP. While this milestone raises long-term concerns about fiscal sustainability, we explain why it doesn’t necessarily signal an imminent crisis.

Finally, we round out the episode with key economic data releases. Consumer confidence showed modest improvement in April, with optimism in the labor market offsetting concerns about geopolitical tensions and rising gas prices. On the labor front, initial jobless claims dropped to their lowest level in over 50 years, reinforcing the strength of the job market and complicating the Fed’s fight against inflation. GDP growth came in at a solid 2.0% annualized rate for Q1, boosted in part by ongoing AI investment, while core PCE remains elevated around 3.2%, underscoring that inflation is still very much in play.

As always – if you have any questions about what we’ve discussed this week, give your advisor a call at 414-223-1099!

• Kyle Tetting
• Art Rothschild
• Adam Baley

(with Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

Monday

No major announcements

Tuesday

Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, driven by higher gas prices. The U.S. Census Bureau said 12 of 13 categories reported higher revenue than February. The exception was miscellaneous stores. Gas station sales jumped 15.5% in a month when prices rose 24%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Excluding gas stations and car dealers, retail spending increased 0.6%. Sales at bars and restaurants rose 0.1%, following a 0.5% gain in February and two months of declines. Adjusted for inflation, total retail sales rose 0.8%, the most in a year. Retail sales represent about two-thirds of U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the gross domestic product.

Prospects for home sellers brightened slightly in March with a bump up in the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said its index rose 1.5% from February but was down 1.1% from the year before. It stood more than 26% below the 2001 index base, which the Realtors consider to be a normal sales level. The association said the monthly increase in contract signings amid rising mortgage interest rates suggested pent-up demand. It cited a lack of inventory, especially for young, first-time buyers. Among the top 50 metro areas in the country, the Realtors said the Milwaukee-Waukesha area had a 13.5% one-year gain in pending sales, second only to the Kansas City area, at 15%.

Wednesday

No major announcements

Thursday

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose slightly for the third week in a row to remain 42% below its average since 1967. A Labor Department report suggested continued reluctance among employers to let workers go. Total jobless claims dropped 1.9% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was 2.9% below the same time in 2025.

Friday

Consumer sentiment declined 6.6% in April as the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran continued to weigh down expectations for personal finances and the broader economy. Sentiment overall was nearly 5% lower than in April 2025 and near its low levels in mid-2022, when inflation reached 40-year highs. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumers expect inflation to rise to 4.7% in the next year and to settle around 3.5% longer term. The latest Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 3.3% in March, well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%.

• Nasdaq – 24837, up 368 points or 1.5%
• S&P 500 – 7165, up 39 points or 0.5%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49229, down 218 points or 0.4%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.31%, up 0.06 point

• Kyle Tetting
• Dave Sandstrom
• John Sandstrom

(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

Monday

Housing sales stayed “sluggish” in March amid the weakest market in more than 30 years, according to the National Association of Realtors. The annual sales rate dipped another 3.6% from February to 3.98 million, 1% lower than the year before. The trade group blamed elevated mortgage rates and continued lack of inventory. Another 300,000 to 500,000 houses would be needed in addition to the 1.4 million already for sale to reach the historic balance between supply and demand, the group said. The imbalance has resulted in price increases. The median sales price rose 1.6% from the year before to a record $408,880 in March. The Realtors estimated that rising prices have increased the typical homeowner’s wealth by $128,100 since 2000.

Tuesday

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in March, as prices on goods increased while services were unchanged. An 8.5% jump in energy prices, including nearly 16% in gasoline, accounted for the bulk of the rise in the cost of goods. The Producer Price Index advanced 4% from the year before, the steepest increase in more than three years. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% from February and was up 3.6% from the year before, the most since November.

Wednesday

No major announcements

Thursday

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the seond week in a row following five weeks of no increases. The indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go remained 42% below the all-time average, dating to 1967, according to Labor Department data. Total claims for jobless benefits fell 4% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was 3% off from where it was the year before.

Industrial production sank in March for the first time in four months as output from mines, utilities and manufacturing all declined. The Federal Reserve Board said overall production fell 0.5%, although it was up 2.4% through the first quarter and was 0.7% ahead of where it stood in March 2025. Factory production dropped 0.1% from February on broad declines led by automotive, which were partly offset by increased output from construction supplies as well as defense and space equipment. Industries’ capacity utilization rate fell slightly from February and stayed below its 54-year average, suggesting higher prices weren’t imminent.

Friday

No major announcements

• Nasdaq – 24468, up 1566 points or 6.8%
• S&P 500 – 7126, up 309 points or 4.5%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49448, up 1531 points or 3.2%
• 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.25%, down 0.08 point

• Kyle Tetting
• Art Rothschild
• Adam Baley

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

In a special episode of the Money Talk Podcast, advisors Kyle Tetting, Art Rothschild and Adam Baley review the first year since the U.S. escalated tariffs and global trade wars.

They discuss corporate uncertainty and market volatility stirred by repeated shifts in tariffs, which have varied by country and remain in flux after the Supreme Court ruled that the justification for many of the changes was illegal.

Kyle, Art and Adam related what the developments have meant so far to long-term investors and what that suggests for managing portfolios and expectations amid disruptive global events.

Learn more

• Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War, from the Tax Foundation
• Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements, from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
• 2025 in rear-view: Lessons learned, by Kyle Tetting
• 2025 Investment Outlook Seminar, a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
• Markets surprise. What should investors do? by Steve Giles
• War: Added uncertainty, need for balance, from Kyle Tetting
• War in Ukraine reminds us of role for bonds, from Kyle Tetting