Hopes grew yesterday that the US and Iran might be able to seal a deal to end the conflict, with a memorandum of understanding apparently having been sent by the US to Iran. The oil price dropped and with it so did bond yields. Meanwhile, global stock markets continued to rally and were given a further boost by artificial intelligence firms and yet more good news from earnings calls. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to explain why he believes that the Strait of Hormuz may lose its strategic importance in the future, as shifts in the oil market that have developed throughout this crisis might well prove to be lasting. Tune in to find out more.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (05:45) - Energy market update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
• (11:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Semiconductor stocks, from Intel to Samsung Electronics, are pushing US and Asian equities to new all‑time highs. Strong earnings from Anheuser‑Busch and Unicredit also lifted European markets. US services activity slowed in April, while inflation pressures stayed elevated. UK yields surged on inflation and fiscal concerns, Swiss data showed higher headline but subdued core inflation, and PMIs in China and India pointed to resilience. The JPY continues to strengthen after last week’s lows, likely reflecting FX intervention. Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, notes while European earnings are rising, the momentum is weaker than in the US where all sectors are showing earnings growth.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:41) - Earnings season update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research
• (11:37) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

After several days of solid gains, markets paused yesterday as risk aversion returned, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices. European equities bore the brunt of the sell-off, while major US indices also closed lower. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, to unpack the outlook for hyperscalers following last week’s earnings, and what it means for the road ahead.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (06:33) - Hyperscaler capex and revenues: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (10:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Geopolitics continues to dominate as investors weigh mixed Middle East messages. Trump has signalled his openness to Iran talks while also warning of renewed conflict and saying the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Global equities are rallying on AI optimism and strong tech earnings, even as central banks stay cautious amid uneven growth and sticky inflation. A pivotal week of earnings and data lies ahead. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses a potential topping process in oil and why technicals suggest the correction in US equities may be ending.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (06:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (08:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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With geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility top of mind, investors are seeking tools to help navigate an increasingly complex landscape. How can structured products add value to portfolios in this environment?

In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, and Maximiliano Ranieri, Head of Structured Products Solutions Sales Geneva, to discuss the role of structured products in portfolios today. The conversation covers the current macroeconomic backdrop, the scenarios where structured products can complement traditional investments, and the four main categories of structured products. The discussion also addresses the significance of volatility with structured products, the key risks to consider, as well as which solutions are resonating in particular with investors right now.

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The US Federal Reserve remains on hold but is the most divided since 1992. Kevin Warsh advanced in a key Senate vote to become the new chairman of the Fed next month. The ascent of the oil price continues amid reports of another military escalation. Major US technology firms reaffirmed heavy AI investment in their earnings releases, but results differed sharply across the companies reporting yesterday: Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation, talks about the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC amid tectonic shifts in the oil market and our outlook for oil as storage is declining. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, notes that geopolitics are not derailing the earnings season.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:18) - Oil/OPEC: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
• (12:05) - Q1 earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
• (17:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices surged above USD 110 on supply concerns stemming from the stalled Iran war and news of an extended blockade of Iran. The rally was capped by historic news that the UAE will exit OPEC. In equities, AI-driven gains faltered amid questions about OpenAI’s growth prospects. With mega-cap technology firms Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft set to report earnings today, attention will also turn to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision at Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Chair, setting the stage for a pivotal rest of the week. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why he does not expect much from the Fed at this point and why tomorrow’s ECB meeting will be more interesting for markets.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (05:55) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
• (09:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets started the week on a cautious note as geopolitics, central bank meetings and rising oil prices kept risk appetite in check. European equities slipped, while US indices hovered near record highs, supported by big tech, despite a pause in the semiconductor rally. AI remained firmly in focus after OpenAI signalled a shift in its relationship with Microsoft. Outside of tech, energy markets drew attention as Shell announced a major acquisition to boost long‑term production. Bond yields edged higher in the US, as investors positioned ahead of the Fed, while commodities stayed volatile and Asian markets were mixed following the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged. Today we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, for a discussion on AI, hyperscalers and the capex wave.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (06:55) - AI, hyperscalers & the capex wave: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation
• (10:31) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content