This week, Iran stated it was reviewing the latest peace proposal from the United States after the U.S. delayed planned strikes, while Pakistan deployed 8,000 troops to Saudi Arabia in the event of renewed hostilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, while U.S. President Donald Trump stated willingness to discuss renewed arms sales to Taiwan, prompting China to delay a meeting with U.S. defense officials.

In transatlantic relations, the Trump administration stated it would reduce the number of forces it would commit to a conflict in Europe, while Russian drones repeatedly crossed into Latvian airspace.

The U.S. charged former Cuban President Raul Castro with conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens in 1996, as Washington continues to exert pressure on the island to reform its governance structure.

How do we measure the size of illicit economies, and what can seizure data actually tell us about the effectiveness of enforcement policies?

In this episode of Crime Beat Conversations, Rafaella Lispschitz speaks with Henry Ziemer, Fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), about the challenges of measuring illicit markets and evaluating interdiction efforts.

The conversation examines:

- The methodologies used to estimate the size of illicit economies - What seizure data can (and cannot) reveal about market activity - The limitations of using interdiction figures as a measure of policy success - What more effective metrics could look like for policymakers and researchers

Watch the full conversation for a closer look at how evidence, data, and methodology shape our understanding of illicit markets and policy responses.

Read Henry’s piece on illicit economy data here: https://www.caballeros.blog/p/the-missing-data-on-illicit-economies

Find Henry’s blog, Caballeros, here: https://www.caballeros.blog/

For more from Henry, follow on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/henry-suckow-ziemer-6a5007158/) and X (https://x.com/HenryZiemer)

A New Lines Institute Mafiacracies Project production: https://newlinesinstitute.org/initiative/mafiacracies-project/

For more from Rafaella, follow on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/rlipschitz) and X (https://x.com/rlipschitz01)

Explore similar analysis and forecasting from New Lines institute: https://newlinesinstitute.org/

Follow our socials for news on upcoming events, analysis, infographics, and more! https://linktr.ee/NewLinesInstitute

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a long-anticipated summit in which the leaders discussed trade relations, the Iran war, and Taiwan.

In the Middle East, Trump rejected a peace proposal by Iran, while representatives from Lebanon and Israel met in Washington, D.C., for a new round of discussions on Hezbollah’s disarmament.

In the Russia/Ukraine war, both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin made separate statements indicating they believe the war was soon coming to an end despite Russia launching a new wave drone strikes across Ukraine. In the Americas, Cuba announced it had run out of diesel and fuel oil stockpiles, while the U.S. Senate appointed Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair.

This week, Iran considered a one-page peace proposal sent by the United States that would end hostilities, while Israel issued new evacuation orders for southern Lebanon and bombed Beirut despite an ongoing ceasefire.

In the Indo-Pacific, China gave conflicting advice to its banks on how to respond to U.S. sanctions, citing a violation of international law, while the EU took steps to reduce its technological dependency on Chinese hardware imports.

In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia conducted airstrikes despite a Ukrainian ceasefire proposal, while mobile internet access in Moscow and St. Petersburg was shut off due to security concerns surrounding upcoming Victory Day parades and U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to withdraw 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany.

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal and ordered an extension of the blockade on Iranian ports, while Israel resumed military operations in Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. sanctioned a Chinese importer of Iranian oil, threatening more sanctions against China’s banking sector, while Beijing blocked Meta’s acquisition of a Chinese AI company. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a Victory Day ceasefire on May 9, while in transatlantic relations, Trump stated he was considering withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany amid ongoing diplomatic disagreements.

This week, the United States imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing two-week ceasefire observed by the U.S., , with talks to extend it and resume diplomatic negotiations in Pakistan currently underway. In the Indo-Pacific, the in the South China Sea, while China eased some trade restrictions against Taiwan following last week’s negotiations with In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed multiple defense agreements with European countries, and the EU sought to move forward with dispensing a multibillion-dollar loan that had until now been held up by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who lost in last week’s parliamentary elections The U.S. has ramped up its planning for possible military action against Cuba amid continued talks over the country’s leadership.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump extended the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, while Iran rejected negotiations with U.S. Vice President JD Vance as the U.S. continued its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. In the Indo-Pacific, Japan removed export bans on lethal weapons, marking a shift in its pacifist policy, while Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te canceled a trip to Eswatini, accusing China of pressuring nearby countries to restrict their airspace. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the European Union approved a $106 billion loan to Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy renewed calls for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This week, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire following President Donald Trump’s threats of targeting Iran's power plants and other infrastructure, while Israel escalated its bombing campaign against Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, South Korea met with representatives from Gulf countries to discuss securing energy supplies, and Taiwan’s opposition leader visited China, stalling Taipei’s efforts to pass a special defense budget. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both sides agreed to an Orthodox Easter ceasefire, while Trump met with NATO’s secretary general amid a strain between Washington and the transatlantic alliance. In the U.S., immigration enforcement operations continued despite a recent funding bill restricting funds from reaching border and immigration operations.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/