Episodes

  • The Fed's In A Finger Trap: Cut Rates or Fight Inflation?

    The Fed's In A Finger Trap: Cut Rates or Fight Inflation?
    May 15 2026
    CPI inflation hit 3.8%, the highest since 2023. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was installed to deliver a fed rate cut in 2026, but the numbers say he can't. While the S&P 500 hits record highs on surging AI stocks, the rest of the market is lagging and the fed rate decision has become a central bank finger trap. Can Warsh pull free? Or is stagflation the new reality? Let's find out On The Markets.

    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP®, Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
    • Look at rate hikes and cuts over the year. What does the rest of 2026 hold in store? What could either decision do to the market?
    • Inflation wipes out wage growth completely for the first time in 3 years.
    • Chris has a chart dating back to the Civil War that shows that market has only been this expensive one other time in history.

    0:00 What is the Fed Finger Trap?
    8:00 Rate hikes and cuts price in for 2026
    9:49 Investor sentiment
    12:06 Inflation wipes out wage gains for first time in 3 years
    16:30 Producer price index rising
    20:20 2 year treasury rate rising
    22:35 Stock market is 2nd most expensive ever
    25:58 What railroads tell us about AI
    28:20 Small cap vs. large cap over the decades
    30:18 Homeowner equity at highest levels since 1960
    35:00 Some good news
    38:56 S&P heat map
    45:03 10 year rate soars, inflation is alive and well
    47:20 Oil
    48:37 Ugly close on bonds

    Video of this episode here: https://youtube.com/live/Khj_z6-QduU


    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

    _______________________________________
    Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.
    The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.
    Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
    Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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    59 mins
  • Did Tariffs Fix The Trade Deficit?

    Did Tariffs Fix The Trade Deficit?
    May 8 2026
    We're just over a year past the proclamation that tariffs would fix all of America’s economic woes. Did it really work? Did the market care one way or the other? Let’s find out On The Market.

    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP®, Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
    • A year of US trade deficit data. Did tariffs really work?
    • What have a year of tariffs done to the cost of producing products in America? Drastic decrease or increase?
    • Could small cap funds finally be outperforming their outsized counterparts?
    • The story of the Japanese toiler maker who’s price surged this week when the world discovered they manufacture AI components (yes, this is a true story).
    • Market closed at an all time high, so maybe tariffs did indirectly do their job? The market is the economy? Is not the economy? Let’s find out.

    3:30 China’s share of rare earth minerals
    8:10 Investor sentiment
    9:45 Markets since implementation of tariffs
    11:50 Inflation since tariff implementation
    13:34 Did the trade deficit reduce?
    15:06 Is manufacturing expanding?
    15:50 Consumer sentiment is down
    22:50 Rental inflation
    24:00 Consumption and AI are powering domestic demand
    25:34 Small-cap growth funds vs. large growth average
    30:20 S&P 500 another all time high
    32:58 Gold descending?
    33:50 10 year treasury trading sideways
    34:50 Bitcoin still trading under 200 day moving average
    35:00 Equally weighted index did not make an all-time high

    Video available here: https://youtube.com/live/2H6Niq8ZHOA

    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

    _______________________________________
    Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.
    The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.
    Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
    Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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    43 mins
  • Powell Out, Warsh In: How the New Fed Chair Might Change Interest Rates

    Powell Out, Warsh In: How the New Fed Chair Might Change Interest Rates
    May 1 2026
    Changing of the guard is officially underway at the Fed, although Jerome Powell’s not going far. How might new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh approach interest rates? Will you finally be able to refinance? And how did the market react to this news? Let’s find out On The Market.

    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP® and Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
    • US debt has passed an unthinkable threshold. How might a new Fed Chair tackle this problem? Or is it a problem?
    • How gas prices have rendered tax refunds irrelevant.
    • Remember when the market felt doomed 6 weeks ago? We’ll look at the signs Daren is seeing that point to nothing but bulls...unless there’s a shooting star?

    0:00 A look back at Jerome Powell’s time as Fed Chair
    14:10 Who owns US debt?
    16:30 US debt exceeds size of the economy
    18:00 Investor sentiment
    19:00 Market returns by Fed Chairs over time
    22:40 Where do Fed Governors stand?
    24:00 2 year treasury
    26:00 Personal consumption expenditures came in high
    27:30 Unemployment claims are down?
    29:00 Gas prices have jumped
    31:13 Price increases from Iran War
    32:40 Betting markets
    39:00 S&P 500, oil and metals this week

    Full video here: https://youtube.com/live/AMS9kRc2khg

    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis
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    52 mins
  • Is Stagflation Coming? What the Markets Are Telling Us Right Now

    Is Stagflation Coming? What the Markets Are Telling Us Right Now
    Apr 24 2026
    Search analytics platforms are seeing a bump this week in the term “stagflation”, a stagnant economy that is also experiencing inflation. Does the narrative hold true in the numbers? Or is it just another storyline blowing in the wind? Let’s find out On The Markets.

    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP® and Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
    • The Strait of Hormuz seems as available as a pop-up food truck right now. In the event of closure, how does the US stack up in oil reserves?
    • How the K-shaped economy can result in consumer sentiment at an all-time low while the purchases are at an all-time high.
    • What price-action in bitcoin and gold could be signaling about this quarter’s market potential.
    • The portfolio tracking that’s on pace for it’s greatest year since 1933.

    0:00 What is stagflation?
    5:10 Worldwide oil reserves
    8:20 Investor sentiment
    17:34 Price changes expected in the next year
    20:18 Food inflation
    21:00 How inflation affects portfolios
    23:10 Permanent portfolios on track for best year since 1933
    25:09 S&P 500 and Nasdaq last 3 years
    30:10 Russell 2000 trend
    30:57 Developed markets looking strong
    31:42 Emerging markets looking strong
    32:30 Bonds trading sideways
    35:40 Gold looking a little off...
    37:27 Bitcoin showing a little strength




    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/

    Audio also available on
    Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-markets/id1802984526
    Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2YqyNLN7mcBApS5RL2piAj
    _______________________________________
    Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.
    The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.
    Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
    Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
    Show More Show Less
    46 mins
  • Rally or Trap: Reading This Week's Market

    Rally or Trap: Reading This Week's Market
    Apr 17 2026
    The S&P pushed to new highs this week — was it a foundational move or a headline-driven band-aid? This week on On The Markets, Daren breaks down whether this rally is the real deal or just another trap waiting to spring. Let’s find out how, On The Market.

    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP® and Daren Blonski CFP® and Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
    • Tariffs, 1 year later. What impact did they really have on prices? We’ve got the data.
    • S&P all time high this week. So why is Chris pulling a chart looking at “lost decades”?
    • Daren takes a victory lap on Bitcoin successfully calling a bottom over 2 weeks ago.

    0:00 Intro
    9:18 Investor sentiment
    14:33 How much taxes do high earners pay?
    18:10 How 1 year of tariffs affected prices
    23:00 Producer price index showing possible inflation
    24:25 Government budget still running a deficit
    31:30 Lost decades for 60/40 portfolios
    34:36 Bitcoin called the bottom
    41:00 S&P heat map is hot
    48:30 Oil is collapsing
    49:25 Volatility is quiet
    49:50 Gold and silver slow rise again
    51:30 Semiconductor index ripping up


    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/

    Full video available on YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/u9l8ZCP3Znc
    _______________________________________
    Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.
    The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.
    Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
    Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
    Show More Show Less
    58 mins
  • Markets Rally Through Headwinds

    Markets Rally Through Headwinds
    Apr 10 2026
    While market movements can often be “priced in” weeks or months in advance, this week’s news cycle clearly had impacts on asset performance. With so many reasons for a downturn, the market still found it’s footing. Let’s find out how, On The Market.

    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP® and Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
    • Daren explains why the “TACO” truck returned to the market this week.
    • Mag 7 held up the market after a rough start to the year. Where do we go from here?
    • It’s tax time. California feels like the most taxed state in the union. Is it true?
    • Layoffs and college grad unemployment making headlines. How many young people are still living with their parents?
    • Consumer sentiment is at a 70 year low, but we’ll examine what signals Daren sees that are indicating a bullish breakout.

    0:00 Intro
    6:20 Income tax by state
    8:20 Young adults living with their parents
    10:47 Investor Sentiment
    11:53 CPI ticks up
    12:30 ISM vs CPI
    16:21 Consumer sentiment at a 70 year low
    18:30 Goods inflation
    20:00 Spread on junk debt
    23:21 S&P is barely off all time highs
    24:20 Stock correlations are low
    26:09 Value stocks finally performing YTD
    28:00 Money supply still going up
    31:30 What the TACO trade really means for the S&P
    37:30 Heat map and thoughts on “up and to the right”
    49:00 Oil down
    49:40 Gold staying strong, Bitcoin double bottom

    Video available on YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/OORmha0_L3Q?feature=share

    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/

    _______________________________________
    Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.
    The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.
    Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
    Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
    Show More Show Less
    57 mins
  • Why Oil, Inflation, and Tech Selloff Might Be 3 Strikes You're Out

    Why Oil, Inflation, and Tech Selloff Might Be 3 Strikes You're Out
    Mar 27 2026
    The Great American Pastime...the market (ha!). Oil, inflation and a tech selloff might be three pitches the market just can’t shake off. What adjustments might be made with mid-term elections on deck? Let’s find out, On The Markets.

    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP® and Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
    • A look at S&P patterns in the last 75 years of midterm elections.
    • All 7 of the Magnificent 7 stocks are down this year and below the S&P as a whole. We compare their era to prior bubbles across the decades.
    • The line that was crossed that confirms to Daren the S&P is indeed in a downturn.

    0:00 Intro
    7:22 A look at prior oil shocks
    9:13 The S&P during Midterms
    12:45 Investor sentiment
    16:11 Consumer sentiment
    18:25 Predicting what Trump might do
    27:08 Interest rates after oil shocks
    29:00 High yield spreads
    30:30 Equities in times of stagflation
    33:00 Bubbles through the decades
    36:56 S&P this week
    39:45 How oversold is the S&P?
    44:00 Bitcoin down
    44:45 Gold finding a botttom?
    45:00 The 10 year telling us more inflation is coming?
    47:15 All eyes on oil


    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/

    Video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/5yGx3mMzKP4

    _______________________________________
    Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.
    The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.
    Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
    Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
    Show More Show Less
    59 mins
  • Spring Time Deja Vu

    Spring Time Deja Vu
    Mar 20 2026
    There’s this feeling that this has happened before.
    There’s this feeling that this has happened before.
    As we approach a year since April 2025’s “Libertation Day” Tariff event, the market is feeling eerily similar, albeit under different circumstances. We examine the factors and possibilities this week, On The Markets.

    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP® and Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
    • An 80 year lookback on the S&P 500 in times of crisis and military action.
    • How has the S&P performed historically during oil-driven events?
    • A deep dive on major asset classes in the wake of this event-driven drawdown.

    8:40 2 Year Treasury Rate
    13:00 10 Year Treasury Rate is up
    14:55 Investor Sentiment
    18:18 S&P decline is not even at April 2025’s depths
    21:34 S&P returns through historic events
    24:04 S&P during times of war
    26:00 60/40 portfolios during oil-driven events
    31:20 Major indexes compared
    37:46 S&P and Nasdaq loses 200 day moving average
    40:06 Developed markets taking it on the chin
    43:30 Bond markets experiencing the “pain cave”
    45:20 Gold finally experiencing a sell off
    47:09 Bitcoin a mild bright spot?


    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/

    Video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/QJ478p76EZI

    _______________________________________
    Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.
    The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.
    Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
    Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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    57 mins