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Plausibly Deniable

Plausibly Deniable

Written by: Lukas and Saila
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A conversation about incentives, power, and the stories we tell ourselves to justify outcomes. Hosted by Lukas (https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ) and Saila (https://x.com/sailaunderscore) Sponsored by Polymarket, CitizenX and Network PressLukas and Saila
Episodes
  • Bay Area House Party Epilogue
    Jun 11 2026

    Lukas records through food poisoning while the boys recap San Francisco, Bay Area house parties, Twitter people becoming real, unlimited oysters, Crime George, social minefields, Uber drivers, crypto trading, Modern Warfare 2, travel degeneracy, lost wallets, coconut water, Ray Peat breathing, Veblen goods, publicists, and whether having a podcast has made normal social interaction impossible.

    Sponsored by:

    Polymarket: https://polymarket.com

    Zcash: https://z.cash

    CitizenX: https://citizenx.com

    Network Press: https://network.press

    _______________________________

    Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org

    Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ

    Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore

    0:00 Crime George1:51 Welcome back / Lukas has the plague4:49 How Lukas somehow didn’t get sick earlier7:04 SF social life becomes dangerous9:11 Food poisoning as a weight-loss arc10:00 Peptides, Reda, and dysphoria12:20 Lukas gets white-pilled14:23 Bay Area house parties16:42 The suit hack at SF parties18:00 Unlimited oysters and suspicious abundance21:15 Meeting Twitter accounts in real life22:00 Everyone is lying about height23:00 San Francisco rent and income realities24:10 Looping AI overlays24:49 Is Lukas juiced?26:14 Walking 20,000 steps in SF26:43 Homeless biomes30:00 Crime George returns32:00 Disheveled podcasting35:00 Social climbing and SF party dynamics40:00 Podcast lore makes dating worse43:30 Grok as internet argument referee50:00 Uber drivers, market structure, and SpaceX IPOs55:00 The anti-social corner at the house party1:00:00 Lukas’s extreme sociability range1:02:00 Bay Area housing roulette1:05:00 Crypto trading styles1:10:00 Modern Warfare 2 nostalgia1:15:00 SF weather complaints1:20:00 Travel mode and neglected responsibilities1:25:00 Alcohol, hangovers, and forbidden tactics1:30:00 The bad airplane seatmate1:33:00 Losing the Amex card1:35:00 Recovering a lost wallet through Uber1:40:00 Coconut water and looksmaxxing accusations1:42:00 Ray Peat, bag breathing, and CO21:48:00 Veblen goods and luxury pricing1:51:00 Publicists and how articles happen1:55:00 Podcast listeners in the wild1:58:00 Respecting the audience / actual cut

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    1 hr and 59 mins
  • Beyond Dual Citizenship: The Case for Becoming a Rootless Cosmopolitan
    Jun 6 2026

    NEED SOME PASSPORTS??https://citizenx.com/?ref=PlausiblyDeniableAlex from CitizenX joins Plausibly Deniable to explain the strange, funny, and increasingly important world of buying citizenship.We talk about why wealthy people are collecting passports, how citizenship by investment actually works, why Europe is cracking down on “golden passport” programs, and why more people are treating passports as geopolitical insurance. Alex breaks down the difference between residency, citizenship, and passports; the main tiers of citizenship programs; why El Salvador’s passport is different; and why places like Switzerland, Singapore, the UAE, Hong Kong, and the U.S. keep attracting millionaires even as the global order gets more unstable.We also get into exit taxes, global taxation, real estate risk, prepper psychology, offshore banking, prediction markets, insider trading rules, and why the best flex might not be a Rolex anymore — it might be seven passports.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore00:00 Passport flexing is the new Rolex flex00:46 Intro: Alex from CitizenX01:36 What CitizenX does03:00 Is “buying a passport” actually legal?05:51 Why the EU hates citizenship by investment07:11 Rich people want poor-country passports10:01 Who buys second passports?11:36 Crypto, trucker protests, and country risk12:46 Global taxation and FATCA14:34 The EU asset register17:15 Where wealthy people move19:12 Why UAE, Singapore, and Switzerland are hard to naturalize in20:49 Why Americans give up citizenship22:40 The decline of the U.S. passport25:12 Brazil, BRICS, and neutral passports27:31 The future of passports and individual surveillance29:28 The three tiers of citizenship programs30:49 The cheapest passports33:33 Caribbean citizenship programs36:29 Germany, conscription, and European demand38:45 Geopolitical chaos as passport marketing41:13 Pavel Durov, UAE citizenship, and state protection43:35 El Salvador’s million-dollar passport45:21 Where millionaires are moving48:10 How to design a good citizenship program53:00 What passport programs actually cost57:00 “Donation” vs buying citizenship1:01:00 Can you own too many passports?1:05:00 Passport portfolios and the ultimate flex1:09:00 Exit vs voice: preppers, bunkers, and passports1:13:00 Drafts, national identity, and exit planning1:18:00 Privacy, Swiss servers, and client secrecy1:23:00 Remote islands, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay1:28:00 U.S. polarization and internal exit1:34:00 Passports as downside protection1:39:00 Real estate as national-risk exposure1:45:00 Prediction markets and forecasting1:50:00 Insider trading, regulation, and Polymarket1:56:00 Final riffs and outro

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    1 hr and 59 mins
  • Vegas: Ragebait Advertising and The 'Idea' of Fun
    May 30 2026

    Vegas is no longer pretending to be normal.This episode starts with the Enhanced Games, Polymarket’s viral “steroid Olympics” coverage, the strange incentives around performance enhancement, and why people misunderstood what the first Enhanced Games actually proved. Then we get into the anthropology of modern Vegas: male models, status games, fake DJ sets, clubbing where nobody talks to each other, and a dating culture where the photo has replaced the actual interaction.


    We also cover TSA house rules, American tort law, why healthcare and contact lenses are so much more annoying in the U.S., European models reading Curtis Yarvin, the collapse of normal social scripts, and why every modern public interaction feels like five layers of game theory.Sponsored by Polymarket, Zcash, CitizenX, and Passage Press.Sponsored by:

    Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore


    0:00 — Dating apps, girls trying men’s profiles, and A/B-tested pickup lines5:00 — Dating zones, cold approach, and clubs as “PvP zones”10:00 — The photo replacing the actual interaction15:30 — Vegas DJs, Zedd, bad drops, and fake live performance23:30 — Modern clubs as Instagram stories in person30:00 — Boomer dating advice and the post-meta dating world36:30 — Intro / welcome back / sponsors38:00 — Enhanced Games, Vegas parties, and the weird elite crowd41:00 — Gas station dick pills, sildenafil, and medical gray zones44:00 — TSA house rules and the safety razor incident48:00 — Contact lenses, U.S. healthcare friction, and tort law53:00 — Playground liability and burning down the backyard structure55:00 — Vegas clubbing, male models, and VIP gender-ratio engineering1:02:00 — Snapchat, looksmaxxing, and scripted nightclub behavior1:05:00 — European models reading Curtis Yarvin1:07:00 — Polymarket’s Enhanced Games tweets1:11:00 — Steroids, genetics, and why the Enhanced Games results were misunderstood1:16:00 — Usain Bolt, doping speculation, and the $10M bounty1:22:00 — Betting, prediction markets, and people needing skin in the game1:30:00 — Capitalism, shareholders, and weird startup/product incentives1:38:00 — Streamers, cameras, and online performance as labor1:48:00 — Rich people, models, and party status games1:56:00 — Podcast production, green screens, and making video work2:05:00 — Online mobs, being clipped, and reputational risk2:12:00 — Streamer infrastructure and jealousy over simple phone setups2:20:00 — Fame, money, and the current content economy2:30:00 — Medicine, hair-loss drugs, and information quality online2:35:00 — Dating apps return: response-rate meta and soulless optimization2:43:00 — The girl who wanted the photo, not the interaction2:50:00 — Why older people can’t understand modern clubbing2:55:00 — Zedd drops, fake DJing, and the audience losing energy3:00:00 — Vegas as fake degeneracy and the private jet analogy3:07:00 — Boomer dating advice, wax seals, and outdated social scripts3:15:00 — Approaching, shoulder-checking, and broken in-person scripts3:22:00 — Politics, media, and people not knowing other worlds exist3:30:00 — SF dinners, networking, and the awkwardness of opinion questions3:38:00 — Consensus reality, social scripts, and closing riffs

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    3 hrs and 45 mins
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