Retail real estate in early 2026 is defined by imbalance. In many suburban, open-air markets, demand is overwhelming supply. Five tenants are chasing one quality space. Vacancy is razor-thin. New construction still does not pencil. The result is leverage—and it is shifting.

Chris Ressa and Andrew Mahr of Bialow Real Estate dig into how that leverage is actually showing up in deals. Face rents are not always jumping overnight, but economics are tightening through lower tenant improvement packages, higher tenant capital contributions, and tougher negotiations around delivery costs. Retail is repricing—just not always in the most obvious way.

The conversation also highlights the growing divide between markets. Urban cores tied to office traffic remain uneven, while suburban lifestyle centers are absorbing demand from retailers with capital, patience, and long-term conviction. Strong operators are choosing to invest more upfront to control fixed occupancy costs over time, especially in junior anchor and specialty formats.

A North Miami case study brings the thesis to life. An off-market Wild Fork deal shows how the best sites are no longer “available”—they are unlocked through persistence, relationships, and a willingness to target occupied real estate. The takeaway is simple: in today’s market, waiting for vacancy is passive. Going direct is how deals get done.

What You’ll Hear

• How rising rents are showing up through deal structure, not always through face rate
• Why tenant improvement packages are shrinking and tenant capital is coming back into the equation
• What it really means when deals “don’t pencil” in a high-cost, high-rate environment
• How strong retailers are deciding when it makes sense to invest more upfront to control long-term occupancy costs
• Why off-market strategies matter more in a low-vacancy world
• A real North Miami case study showing how targeting occupied real estate can unlock best-in-market locations
• How landlord-tenant alignment can accelerate expansion and turn single deals into long-term partnerships

Chapters

00:00 – Welcome and introductions

Chris Ressa welcomes Andrew Mahr and sets the stage for a wide-ranging conversation on retail, relationships, and the market.

01:00 – Running, resilience, and perspective

Andrew shares his Boston Marathon journey and why endurance, advocacy, and long-term commitment shape how he approaches business.

03:00 – What Bilo Real Estate actually does

A look at Bilo’s role as a national, outsourced real estate department and why deep market familiarity matters.

05:15 – Retail in 2026: a tale of two markets

Urban cores tied to office demand lag while suburban, open-air retail faces intense competition and limited supply.

07:45 – Why new retail still doesn’t pencil

Interest rates, construction costs, and underwriting realities continue to stall speculative retail development.

09:30 – Leasing momentum and shifting deal economics

Rents are rising—but often through reduced TIs and higher tenant capital, not just headline numbers.

12:00 – Who’s winning: strong retailers with capital

Why the healthiest tenants are choosing to invest more upfront to control long-term occupancy costs.

13:30 – Hospitality and wellness as growth categories

Restaurants, social...

Retail real estate is not just stable — it is entering a meaningfully better phase of the cycle.

Drawing on recent conversations with owners, brokers, tenants, architects, engineers, and contractors, Chris Ressa challenges the prevailing narrative that 2026 will simply mirror a solid 2025. Instead, he outlines why the year ahead could outperform expectations across leasing, rents, and long-term fundamentals.

At the center of his thesis is sustained leasing velocity. Across categories and markets, tenant demand continues to outpace available supply, even as headlines focus on isolated retailer struggles. Chris explains why those failures do not define the health of retail — and why today’s winners are expanding with conviction.

He also breaks down why early-2025 disruptions, including an unusually high number of store closures and tariff uncertainty, are unlikely to repeat in 2026. With bankruptcies moderating, new construction still muted, and many signed tenants yet to open, available retail space is tightening further.

Layer in a U.S. consumer expected to gain discretionary spending power, and the result is a collision of forces that may finally unlock meaningful rent growth. Chris argues this is the early innings of a retail pricing cycle — and 2026 could be the year it clearly shows up.

What You’ll Hear

• Why 2026 could outperform already-strong 2025 results
• How leasing velocity is signaling a tighter retail market
• The impact of fewer bankruptcies on available retail space
• Why muted new construction matters more than headlines suggest
• How rising consumer discretionary income supports rent growth
• What the next retail pricing cycle may look like for landlords and investors

Chapters

00:12 – Welcome to 2026

Chris sets the stage with early sentiment from across the retail real estate industry.

01:58 – Leasing Velocity Tells the Real Story

Demand for retail space continues to outpace supply across most categories.

03:28 – Winners, Losers, and Retail Reality

Why retailer failures don’t equal a weak retail sector.

05:32 – Bankruptcies, Tariffs, and a Reset Market

How 2025 disruptions slowed leasing—and why 2026 looks different.

07:26 – The Consumer Comes Back Into Focus

Rising discretionary income and its impact on physical retail demand.

08:18 – Rent Growth vs. Landlord CapEx

How economics are shifting tenant and landlord cost burdens.

09:03 – The Early Innings of a Pricing Cycle

Why multiple forces are colliding to push rents higher.

10:55 – What’s Next for Retail Retold

Fresh off the energy of ICSC New York, Chris Ressa and Carly Iacono unpack what really matters in retail real estate right now and where the market is headed into 2026. In this episode of What’s in Store, they move past surface-level headlines and dig into the conversations happening behind closed doors with investors, landlords, and retailers alike. pasted

One clear theme emerged: certainty has returned, but the conversation has shifted. Cap rates are no longer viewed solely through the lens of interest rates. Instead, investors are pricing risk based on tenant quality, sector fundamentals, and long-term demand. At the same time, retailers are facing a supply crunch, with limited availability in top shopping centers constraining expansion, even as new stores continue to outperform expectations.

Chris and Carly also explore the rising demand for value net lease deals, the growing challenge of maintaining long weighted average lease terms, and why long-term credit tenants have become harder to find. Perhaps most encouraging, retailers are reinvesting heavily in their physical stores, signaling renewed confidence in brick-and-mortar retail.

Taken together, these insights paint a clear picture: retail is not just resilient. It is evolving with discipline, data, and conviction.

What You’ll Hear

1. Why cap rates are being driven more by risk than rates
2. How supply constraints are reshaping retailer expansion plans
3. Why value net lease assets are suddenly in high demand
4. What strong new-store performance signals about consumer behavior
5. How retailers are prioritizing physical stores again
6. What the absence of AI chatter says about the current cycle
7. Why these trends matter heading into 2026

Chapters

00:07 – Setting the Stage at ICSC New York

Chris and Carly explain why ICSC remains the most important deal-making forum in retail real estate.

02:30 – Why Cap Rates Are No Longer Just About Interest Rates

The discussion shifts to how investors are pricing risk by sector and tenant quality.

10:25 – Liquidity Returns and What It Means for Deal Volume

Improving credit markets are quietly unlocking stalled transactions.

12:07 – The Real Supply Constraint Retailers Are Facing

Retailers want to grow, but many cannot find space in their top target centers.

15:51 – Value Net Lease Becomes a Hot Asset Class

Short-term and below-market leases attract intense buyer demand.

25:28 – New Stores Are Outperforming Expectations

Retailers report new locations beating pro forma sales projections.

31:39 – The Challenge of Long-Term Credit and Lease Duration

Maintaining portfolio WALT is getting harder as long-term deals become scarce.

34:23 – Retailers Reinvest in the In-Store Experience

Capital is flowing back into physical stores through remodels and upgrades.

37:05 – The Surprising Silence Around AI and Labor

Two dominant topics from past conferences barely register this year.

38:34 – Why These Trends Point Toward 2026

Chris and Carly explain why these themes are just the...