Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison are back with a round-the-world showcase in this episode, taking in three of the biggest stories in the industry: a market reshuffle in Mexico, Austria's long-awaited monopoly shake-up and the implications of the Caesars acquisition.

As the second biggest LatAm market after Brazil, Mexico has grown at a fast pace, and 80% of the market is onshore. However, a new 50% GGR tax rate and the licence revocation of Bet365 and Betano's licensing partner may now disrupt that growth.

H2 estimates Mexico's World Cup co-hosting role could generate around $2.5 billion in extra sportsbook turnover. Whether that offsets the drag from the tax hike remains to be seen.

Austria's Ministry of Finance has leaked a draft bill to end Win2day's decades-long online gambling monopoly and open the market to multiple operators for the first time. As Imogen Goodman reports, the Finance Ministry itself acknowledges the monopoly model has become increasingly difficult to enforce in the digital age. The reform could deliver a significant fiscal windfall, especially as Austria faces pressure to reduce its budget deficit.

The pair welcome the direction of travel but raise serious concerns about what is on the table, for example, deposit limits of €250 per week for under-26s, a €2 maximum stake per spin and back taxes owed on outstanding Austrian court rulings.

Ed's early verdict is clear: with restrictions like these, the channelisation rate could end up closer to that of the Netherlands than anyone would like. As the Dutch channelisation slipped below 50% in the first half of 2025 due to strict deposit limits, Austria has been warned.

As iGB reported, Tilman Fertitta recently agreed a $5.7 billion deal to acquire Caesars Entertainment. Ed's key point is that the Caesars digital business is strategically valuable not just as a revenue line but also as a player data tool for cross-selling to land-based properties. Spinning it off risks destroying that value entirely. Tune in to hear the pair's full verdict.

Finally, we want to thank everyone who has been listening and getting in touch. Every message means more than you think.

Check out the full Right to the Source series for more iGaming insights.

• (00:00:00) - Ren and Stimpy
• (00:02:17) - Correction: Emaciated Is Not Egregiated
• (00:03:15) - Celtic vs Hearts
• (00:05:19) - Sports Talk
• (00:08:35) - Mexico
• (00:15:28) - Gambling regulation in Mexico, Spain
• (00:17:11) - Austria to liberalize online gambling
• (00:21:45) - What Is The Age You Can Change Your Name in the UK?
• (00:23:12) - Austria's gambling restrictions
• (00:28:25) - People Talk About Caesar Salad
• (00:29:30) - Norway's online casino scandal
• (00:31:44) - Caesars Entertainment spin-off: EWTN interview
• (00:35:24) - Ren and Stimpy: Who Knows That?

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison walk us through some of the key industry topics in the latest episode of Right to the Source. The UK takes centre stage, with a detour around the world for good measure.

The pair touch on Portugal's new centralised self-exclusion system and Australia's gambling ad reforms before Robin introduces something genuinely new to the series: the UK prize draw market.

According to Robin, 44% of operators were incorporated after 2020. At £1.3 billion in annual player spend and 7.4 million active players, it is a young and largely unregulated sector operating outside Gambling Commission oversight.

As Nicole Macedo recently reported, with 88% of prize draw participants also engaging in commercial gambling, the cross-sell opportunity is hard to ignore. However, Ed is sceptical that it is a meaningful opportunity for real-money gaming operators, as he thinks the targeted players for prize draws are different.

On the other hand, the remote gaming duty hike in the UK is pushing operators to lower slot RTPs. Both Ed and Robin land on the same conclusion: it is probably a bad thing for operators and players alike.

Ed draws on a conversation from the Big Daddy Gaming episode earlier in the year. Operators have spent years calibrating RTP to an optimal level. If it were simply a case of cutting it to make more money, they would have done it already.

Ed's bigger concern, though, is what this means for the industry's credibility. If the market keeps growing despite the tax hike, the government will simply conclude the industry was crying wolf.

There are a few stories to keep the prediction market lively. The pair cover some recent developments regarding Brazil, the NCAA and DraftKings. Check out the prediction market roundup from iGB to keep up with the latest developments.

The episode finishes with the Sportradar short-selling report. Ed raises a pointed question about whether commercial data providers should also serve as integrity monitors. Tune in to hear Ed's verdict!

• (00:00:10) - Ed Birkin
• (00:03:12) - Sports Betting in Brazil
• (00:09:01) - Australia gambling ad reforms
• (00:14:07) - Vikehouse's fight for a monopoly in Finland
• (00:16:28) - The prize draw market in the UK
• (00:18:04) - Omaze's Adverts
• (00:18:39) - Prize draws
• (00:24:49) - RTP
• (00:31:14) - Will the RTP increase the attractiveness of slots on the illegal market
• (00:34:57) - Meta Adblocking Illegal Gambling
• (00:39:45) - Big Picture: Short Selling, Sport Radar,

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison covered a few key industry topics this week, taking a closer look at the recent ECJ development and the March Madness betting market.

The pair begin with the recent ECJ opinion around German player-loss cases, which they suggest offers limited clarity for the wider industry. The opinion appears to support the right of member states to enforce local gambling licensing regimes, as long as those rules comply with EU law. However, it still leaves the biggest questions unanswered.

According to Ed, March Madness is the single most-bet tournament in the world. H2 estimates that the legal US sportsbook handle for the men’s and women’s tournaments combined will reach $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion last year.

In addition, Ed estimates prediction markets could generate around $1.6 billion in volume on the tournament, which he translates to roughly $530 million in handle equivalent. The amount directly competing with regulated sportsbooks in states where sports betting is already legal is much smaller, at around $135 million to $150 million.

From the discussion, prediction markets are far from the only factor that could affect sportsbook performance. Other pressures, such as promotional pullbacks, macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer behaviour, may have a greater impact on handle.

The pair conclude by widening the discussion around prediction markets more broadly. Robin points to recent developments in places such as Brazil, Argentina and the Netherlands, while Ed remains firmly sceptical about their long-term prospects.

• (00:00:00) - Chris Rock: The Fresh Prince Of Bel Air
• (00:04:21) - Uncle Phil on the Podcast
• (00:05:31) - Europe Court of Justice
• (00:07:16) - European court case on betting losses
• (00:13:13) - Unlicensed Betting in Malta
• (00:16:49) - Nothing but an empty shell
• (00:17:38) - March Madness
• (00:20:51) - March Madness: Will it affect sports books?
• (00:25:38) - What's driving down sports bet handle?
• (00:30:39) - Governor of Utah on Political Correctness
• (00:36:02) - Kings Casino: Overhyped, but that's OK
• (00:40:04) - John Terry's NFTs
• (00:43:02) - Snoop Dogg Bought His NFT