As U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran enter their second week, the Kremlin faces a complex calculus of costs and benefits. On one hand, the conflict has triggered a surge in global oil prices and effectively diverted critical Western weapon systems away from the Ukrainian front, offering Vladimir Putin clear advantages. Conversely, the war threatens to further isolate Russia by driving the Gulf states firmly into the U.S. camp. While Russian state media intensifies its rhetoric regarding American treachery and "regime adjustment," the ongoing conflict exposes the limits of the Kremlin's regional influence.

In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it.

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As the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran commenced this weekend, Russian state media took a surprisingly muted tone, avoiding condemnation of President Donald Trump despite characterizing the strikes as a "treacherous attack" on an erstwhile ally. Vladimir Putin, seemingly taken by surprise, has conspicuously withheld any formal opposition, signaling that Moscow remains on the fence while prioritizing its high-stakes talks with Washington over the future of Ukraine. With Putin's "special military operation" marking its four-year anniversary last week, the timing of Trump's "operation" in Iran highlights (for Russian media) uncomfortable parallels between the two conflicts.

In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it.

The third round of trilateral peace negotiations in Geneva ended abruptly, with Moscow's lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky appearing visibly defeated after sessions described as "very difficult": a diplomatic euphemism for near-breakdown. Despite these outward signs of failure, state media depicts Vladimir Putin as a leader genuinely engaged in seeking an end to the war in Ukraine, a narrative crafted to appease a domestic audience increasingly eager for the four-year-old conflict to conclude. Most striking is the recent emergence of explicit "post-war" messaging on state television, where talking heads have begun publicly imagining a future for Russia after the lifting of Western sanctions. While these signals hint at a pivot toward peace, the reality on the front lines and the deep chasm between negotiating parties suggest the exit remains out of reach.

In this episode, Andy Kuchins and Chris Monday unpack how Vladimir Putin and Russian elites understand the world, and how they seek to influence it.