Single Family Market Update: Rental Platform Risk, Inventory Stabilizes, Builder Pullback, Institutional Capital Shifts (2026.02.11)

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Zillow and Redfin ordered to produce executive communications in $100M antitrust case over rental syndication agreement
FTC alleges payment reduced competition in multifamily rental listings, potentially reshaping rental distribution models
Platform risk may impact listing visibility, marketing costs, vacancy timelines, and syndication pricing for rental investors
National housing inventory up 10% year-over-year but growth has decelerated sharply from 30%+ last summer
Active listings near 695,000 nationally; new listings down 13.3% year-over-year, signaling fewer fresh sellers entering market
Pending sales rising as supply growth slows, suggesting gradual tightening conditions in resale market
Mortgage rates holding at 6.11% with no clear catalyst for near-term Fed rate cuts
Cost of capital remains anchored near current levels, increasing risk of waiting to refinance
Housing starts down 4.6% and permits down 3.1%, continuing builder pullback that began mid-2025
Builder competition likely elevated through Q1 and early Q2 before easing in second half as reduced pipeline works through
Camden Property Trust exiting California, reallocating ~$1.5B into Sun Belt markets citing regulatory costs and operating friction
Institutional capital shifting toward lower-regulation states, reinforcing divergence in long-term risk and return profiles across markets

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