In many ways the beginning of the musical Hamilton, is quite historically accurate. But to Sean, the precision gets loose… especially the election of 1800. So today Sean and Jay are here to set the record straight.

Start with James Madison, who isn't even in the capital in 1800; he'd retired to Montpelier. Then John Adams, whom the musical writes off entirely. Adams' New England base secured him against Hamilton's repeated attempts to dislodge him, and the race was far closer than the musical lets on, a few hundred votes in New York and he's re-elected. Hamilton, meanwhile, belonged to the High Federalist faction agitating for war with France; what Adams actually does in 1800 is negotiate the peace that infuriates them.

Aaron Burr had no separate faction either. He was a core Republican organizer who out-hustled Hamilton in New York City and helped build what became Tammany Hall. And when the Electoral College tied -an artifact of the pre-Twelfth Amendment ballot- it wasn't "up to Hamilton" to instruct anyone. It went to the lame-duck Federalist House, voting one vote per state, and took 36 ballots.

The midterms are in view, and Sean and Jay try not to treat the tea leaves like gospel. Although Jay got into the limelight through election blogging, he’s realized that it’s difficult to differentiate what he wants to happen and what will happen. This bias doesn’t just influence Jay but is ingrained in the practice of forecasting itself, making election predictions all the more difficult. Nevertheless, what politicians are doing now and how voters are feeling might give us a glimpse into November. Sean notes that unless you’re a wartime president or a great economy president, the ruling president will likely lose house seats, so we might see a wave of Blue representatives. The Senate? Only God knows for certain.

From 1933 to 1953 we only had two presidents… So we naturally ranked them. When FDR came into office the country was looking bleak, there was a steady economic decline into the Great Depression that could have inspired a revolution. Instead, FDR maintains our democracy but grows the federal government like no other. Sean points how FDR was more moderate than perceived and Jay calls him a Wilsonian progressive but both see FDR as a defender of the republic. Following FDR, Truman "slips into place" as a wartime president but leaves with shockingly low approval ratings. However, Truman’s commitment to civil rights and strong opposition to communism may be his saving grace.

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Some kooks with sex scandals, securities fraud, and outlandish tweets are winning primaries and even congressional seats. Why are these ideological crackpots winning? And where are the party gatekeepers? On today’s podcast, Jay and Sean discuss how a centuries-long precedent of (primarily) electing the righteous is slowly falling prey to populism. In this podcast, our hosts discuss how the McGovern-Fraser Commission of 1968 may have increased democratic participation in primaries, but at the same time allowed political outsiders and some unique kooks to rise to power. Furthermore, the 1974 amendments to the Federal Election Campaign Act—although they limited the political power of rich donors—took power away from the parties to fund well-vetted candidates themselves.

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On this week’s episode, Jay and Sean hypothesize about what Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton, and even Brutus would have thought about our republic in its 250th year. From Washington’s hatred of partisanship to Hamilton’s love of our energetic national government, our hosts analyze what our founders would have admired and what they would have despised in 2026 America. We’d probably hear lots of “I told you so!” from all sides... Hope you enjoy our podcast and our nation’s semiquincentennial!

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This week, Jay and Sean welcome Echelon Insight’s Patrick Ruffini to Stubborn Things to talk about how the GOP went from the party of Reagan to the party of Trump. Patrick discussed the Republican Party’s demographic shift and how Trump began to appeal to working class voters during the 2016 election. Jay, Sean, and Patrick also touched on the idea of economic aspiration, potential reversions in the GOP’s demographic gains, and economic and educational indicators of voting patterns. Plus, hear Patrick’s thoughts about the future of the GOP post-Trump and what to watch for in the midterms.

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Show notes:

Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP

Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream

Steadfast Democrats: How Social Forces Shape Black Political Behavior